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Generating Agricultural Landscapes for Alternative Futures Analysis: A Multiple Attribute Decision-Making Model

机译：生成用于替代期货分析的农业景观：多属性决策模型

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摘要

This paper describes the development of a multi-attribute decision model that generates depictions of the agricultural landscape for use in alternative futures studies. The fundamental assumption of the model is that changes in agricultural land cover are due to rational decisions made by an agricultural producer that are based on the attributes of the producer, the crops, and the field. The model first evaluates any changes in the land base due to conversion of farmland to non-agricultural uses, and then uses field descriptions, crop characteristics, and the decision paradigm of an agricultural producer to determine the preferred crop for each field under a particular policy scenario. By cycling over the fields for each time-step in the simulation, future depictions of the agricultural system that respond to various drivers of change are generated. An example implementation of an alternative futures model is provided to show how this method can be used to examine alternative policy or management options.
机译：本文介绍了多属性决策模型的开发，该模型可生成用于替代期货研究的农业景观描述。该模型的基本假设是，农业土地覆盖率的变化归因于农业生产者基于生产者，作物和田地的属性做出的理性决定。该模型首先评估由于农田转为非农业用途而引起的土地基础的任何变化，然后使用田地描述，作物特征和农业生产者的决策范例来确定特定政策下每个田地的首选作物场景。通过在模拟中的每个时间步长遍历各个字段，可以生成对各种变化驱动因素做出响应的未来农业系统描述。提供了替代期货模型的示例实现，以显示如何使用此方法来检查替代政策或管理选项。

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