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Impact Analysis of Railway Projects in a Flexibility Perspective

机译：灵活性视角下的铁路项目影响分析

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摘要

In a multiple case study, using both quantitative and qualitative data, the traffic impact of four Norwegian railway investment projects was analysed, focusing on the development of punctuality, frequency, travel time, number of travellers and construction cost. Front-end ex-ante predictions are compared with observed ex-post outcome. Key success criteria for realization of planned benefits in the studied railway investment projects have been a combination of infrastructure development and acceptance for timetable adjustments. Investments that are executed in a large-scale continuous construction process appear to be more likely to achieve such acceptance compared with investments built and decided upon section by section. Of the studied projects, section-by-section commitment to investments provided a better cost control than what was the case for continuous construction projects. In addition, this study points to challenges in realizing travel time reductions in a system with a combination of single tracks and high capacity utilization of double tracks. It is advised to clarify in appraisal documentation that benefits related to railway infrastructure investments are depending on appropriate timetable adjustments. The results indicate that a flexibility option (to sequence a decision process) may actually reduce the benefit potential of an investment.
机译：在一个多案例研究中，使用定量和定性数据，分析了四个挪威铁路投资项目对交通的影响，重点是准时性，班次，出行时间，旅客人数和建筑成本的发展。将前端事前预测与观察到的事后结果进行比较。在所研究的铁路投资项目中，实现计划收益的关键成功标准是基础设施建设和接受时间表调整的结合。与按节建造和决定的投资相比，在大规模的连续施工过程中执行的投资似乎更有可能获得这种认可。在研究的项目中，与连续建设项目相比，对投资的逐项承诺提供了更好的成本控制。此外，这项研究还提出了在单轨和双轨高利用率结合的系统中实现减少旅行时间的挑战。建议在评估文件中澄清与铁路基础设施投资相关的收益取决于适当的时间表调整。结果表明，灵活性选项（对决策过程进行排序）实际上可能会降低投资的潜在收益。

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