...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Transport Reviews >Is the Stagnation of Individual Car Travel a General Phenomenon in France? A Time-Series Analysis by Zone of Residence and Standard of Living
【24h】

Is the Stagnation of Individual Car Travel a General Phenomenon in France? A Time-Series Analysis by Zone of Residence and Standard of Living

机译：在法国，单车旅行停滞是普遍现象吗？居住区和生活水平的时间序列分析

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

At the aggregate level, the growth in individual car use (in vehicle-kilometers per adult) over time has considerably slowed down in France in the 2000s, but is this tendency observed whatever the area and standard of living? Relying on annual data drawn from the French Household Continuous Surveys (1974-1994) and the Car Fleet surveys (1994-2010), time-series of annual mileage per adult is compared in the four quartiles of the household income scale, in three types of zone: core cities, suburbs and low-density areas. We observe that the recent stagnation of individual car use is a general phenomenon, as it has occurred in all the income groups and in all the areas, but at different levels and moments in time nonetheless. In the 2000s, fuel price has dramatically increased, providing a likely explanation for the slowdown observed in the time-series. Using a Chapman-Richards growth model where the saturation level depends on economic factors, we disentangle their effect from the diffusion process of individual car use over time. As expected, the saturation level is found to be an increasing function of income, and a decreasing function of fuel price and population density. Besides, the estimation results show that the diffusion of individual car use among low-income households in 2010 was still ongoing in all the types of zone, while it was ending for high-income households. Moreover, the model assumes that the fuel price sensitivity of individual car use is decreasing as the standard of living raises: it is probably the combination of these effects that has led the annual mileage per adult to stabilize in the 2000s.
机译：从总体上看，在2000年代法国，随着时间的推移，个人汽车使用量的增长（每位成人的汽车公里数）已经大大减慢了，但是无论居住面积和生活水平如何，这种趋势都能观察到吗？根据法国家庭连续调查（1974-1994）和汽车调查（1994-2010）得出的年度数据，在三种收入类型的家庭收入规模的四个四分位数中比较了每个成年人的年行驶里程的时间序列地区：核心城市，郊区和低密度地区。我们观察到，最近的个人汽车使用停滞是一个普遍现象，因为它出现在所有收入群体和所有地区，但仍然在不同的水平和时间出现。在2000年代，燃油价格急剧上涨，这可能为时间序列中观察到的减速提供了解释。使用查普曼-理查兹（Chapman-Richards）增长模型，其中饱和度取决于经济因素，我们可以将它们的影响与随时间推移的单个汽车使用的扩散过程区分开。正如预期的那样，饱和度水平是收入的增加函数，而燃料价格和人口密度的下降函数。此外，估计结果表明，在所有类型的区域中，2010年低收入家庭中个人汽车使用的扩散仍在继续，而高收入家庭的这一趋势正在结束。此外，该模型假设，随着生活水平的提高，个人使用汽车的燃油价格敏感性正在降低：可能是这些影响的综合作用使每位成年人的年行驶里程稳定在2000年代。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号