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Mapping Railway Development Prospects in Brazil

机译:描绘巴西的铁路发展前景

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This paper reports on what appears to be the first attempt to map the perceived holistic dynamics at work in contemporary Brazilian railway development. The published perspectives of recognized experts in the Brazilian railway industry were mapped using the problem structuring methodology known as Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA). SODA is essentially a cognitive mapping approach and, in this case, it enabled a classification of the issues involved in railway development, as well as the detailed analysis of particular causes and effects acting upon the issues. Two particularly disturbing results are discussed in some length: the detrimental effects of the alleged misappropriations of public funds, and the identification of a degenerative feedback loop system at the heart of railway decision-making. Overall, the paper shows that the situation faced by railway development in Brazil is constituted by a dynamic interaction of non-independent problems, indicating the presence of a complex problem-system requiring conceptual structure in a manner that permits analysis without ignoring systemic integrity. As such, the paper serves as a platform from which further use of SODA in this context might be considered as a decision support tool.
机译:本文报道了在当代巴西铁路发展中似乎首次尝试绘制感知的整体动态的尝试。使用称为战略选择开发和分析(SODA)的问题构造方法,对巴西铁路行业公认专家的已发表观点进行了测绘。 SODA本质上是一种认知测绘方法,在这种情况下,它可以对铁路发展中涉及的问题进行分类,并对导致这些问题的特定原因和影响进行详细分析。在一定程度上讨论了两个特别令人不安的结果:所谓的挪用公款的不利影响,以及在铁路决策中心确定退化的反馈回路系统。总体而言,该论文表明,巴西铁路发展面临的局势是由非独立问题的动态相互作用所构成的,这表明存在着一个复杂的问题系统,该问题系统需要一种概念结构,并且可以在不忽略系统完整性的情况下进行分析。因此,本文是一个平台,可以将SODA在这种情况下的进一步使用视为一个决策支持工具。

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