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Applicability of an Extended Prospect Theory to Travel Behaviour Research: A Meta-Analysis

机译:扩展前景理论在旅行行为研究中的适用性:荟萃分析

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摘要

In transport research, choice behaviour is commonly investigated by using discrete choice models that comply with the utility theory (UT) paradigm. The objective of this article is to assess the extent to which the assumptions of an extended version of prospect theory (PT) allow for a better description of travellers' choice behaviour than UT. To that aim the travel behaviour literature was reviewed for information about observed choice behaviour suitable for such a comparison. The review yielded 106 studies that covered almost the whole range of domains and contexts of travel behaviour. Compared to the corresponding assumptions of UT, a meta-analysis showed a better descriptive performance of reference-dependent framing connected with loss-aversive valuation, and of interpersonal heterogeneity in choice behaviour strategies. Diminishing sensitivity approached the observed behaviour better than the sign-independent utility function of UT in several studies where a comparison was feasible. In choice under risk or uncertainty, the non-linear weighting of probabilities in connection with loss aversion appeared to offer a better description than expected UT. It is concluded that the joint application of the assumptions of an extended PT might provide a better understanding of human choice behaviour over the whole range of travel-related contexts.
机译:在运输研究中,通常通过使用符合效用理论(UT)范式的离散选择模型来研究选择行为。本文的目的是评估前景理论(PT)的扩展版本的假设在何种程度上可以比UT更好地描述旅行者的选择行为。为此,对旅行行为文献进行了回顾,以获取有关适合这种比较的观察到的选择行为的信息。审查得出106项研究,几乎涵盖了旅行行为的所有领域和环境。与UT的相应假设相比,荟萃分析显示了与参考依赖的框架和损失平均估值相关的更好的描述性能,以及在选择行为策略中的人际异质性。在一些比较可行的研究中,灵敏度的降低比UT的独立于符号的效用函数更好地接近了观察到的行为。在风险或不确定性的选择中,与损失厌恶有关的概率的非线性加权似乎比预期的UT提供了更好的描述。结论是,联合应用扩展PT的假设可能会更好地理解与旅行相关的整个环境中的人类选择行为。

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