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首页> 外文期刊>Transport Reviews >Evacuation Modelling in the United States: Does the Demand Model Choice Matter?
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Evacuation Modelling in the United States: Does the Demand Model Choice Matter?

机译：美国的疏散模型：需求模型选择重要吗？

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摘要

This paper reviews the literature on the evacuation demand problem, with an emphasis on the impact of various modelling approaches on network-wide evacuation performance measures. First, a number of important factors that affect evacuee behaviour are summarized. Evacuation software packages and tools are also investigated in terms of the demand generation model they use. The most widely used models are then selected for performing sensitivity analysis. Next, a cell-transmission-based system optimal dynamic traffic assignment (SO-DTA) model is employed to assess the effects of the demand model choice on the clearance time and average travel time. It is concluded that evacuation demand models should be selected with care, and policy makers should make sure the selected demand curve can replicate real-life conditions with relatively high fidelity for the study region to be able to develop reliable and realistic evacuation plans.
机译：本文回顾了有关疏散需求问题的文献，重点介绍了各种建模方法对网络范围内的疏散性能指标的影响。首先，总结了影响撤离人员行为的许多重要因素。疏散软件包和工具也根据它们使用的需求生成模型进行了研究。然后选择使用最广泛的模型进行敏感性分析。接下来，采用基于小区传输的系统最佳动态交通分配（SO-DTA）模型来评估需求模型选择对清关时间和平均旅行时间的影响。结论是，应谨慎选择疏散需求模型，决策者应确保所选的需求曲线能够以较高的保真度复制研究区域的真实生活条件，以便能够制定可靠而现实的疏散计划。

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