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The Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) System and Its Validation over the Eastern Alpine Region

机译：综合分析综合预报系统（INCA）及其在东部高山地区的验证

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This paper presents the Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) system, which has been developed for use in mountainous terrain. Analysis and nowcasting fields include temperature, humidity, wind, precipitation amount, precipitation type, cloudiness, and global radiation. The analysis part of the system combines surface station data with remote sensing data in such a way that the observations at the station locations are reproduced, whereas the remote sensing data provide the spatial structure for the interpolation. The nowcasting part employs classical correlation-based motion vectors derived from previous consecutive analyses. In the case of precipitation the nowcast includes an intensity-dependent elevation effect. After 2-6 h of forecast time the nowcast is merged into an NWP forecast provided by a limited-area model, using a predefined temporal weighting function. Cross validation of the analysis and verification of the nowcast are performed. Analysis quality is high for temperature, but comparatively low for wind and precipitation, because of the limited representativeness of station data in mountainous terrain, which can be only partially compensated by the analysis algorithm. Significant added value of the system compared to the NWP forecast is found in the first few hours of the nowcast. At longer lead times the effects of the latest observations becomes small, but in the case of temperature the downscaling of the NWP forecast within the INCA system continues to provide some improvement compared to the direct NWP output.
机译：本文介绍了经过综合分析的综合临近预报（INCA）系统，该系统已开发用于山区。分析和临近预报领域包括温度，湿度，风，降水量，降水类型，云量和全球辐射。系统的分析部分以这样的方式将地面站数据与遥感数据结合起来，即可以再现站点位置的观测值，而遥感数据则为插值提供了空间结构。临近预报部分采用了从以前的连续分析得出的基于经典相关性的运动矢量。在降雨的情况下，临近预报包括强度相关的海拔效应。在预测时间2-6小时后，使用预定义的时间加权函数，将临近预报合并到由有限区域模型提供的NWP预测中。将对临近预报的分析和验证进行交叉验证。由于山区中测站数据的代表性有限，分析质量对于温度而言较高，而对于风和降水而言则相对较低，这只能通过分析算法得到部分补偿。与临近NWP预测相比，该系统的显着增值出现在临近预报的前几个小时。在较长的交货时间下，最新观测值的影响变小，但是在温度升高的情况下，与直接NWP输出相比，INCA系统内NWP预测的缩减继续提供某些改进。

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