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Forecasting the New York City Urban Heat Island and Sea Breeze during Extreme Heat Events

机译：在极端高温事件中预测纽约市的城市热岛和海风

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摘要

Two extreme heat events impacting the New York City (NYC), New York, metropolitan region during 7-10 June and 21-24 July 2011 are examined in detail using a combination of models and observations. The U.S. Navy's Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) produces real-time forecasts across the region on a 1-km resolution grid and employs an urban canopy parameterization to account for the influence of the city on the atmosphere. Forecasts from the National Weather Service's 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are also examined. The accuracy of the forecasts is evaluated using a land- and coastline-based observation network. Observed temperatures reached 39°C or more at central urban sites over several days and remained high overnight due to urban heat island (UHI) effects, with a typical nighttime urban-rural temperature difference of 4°-5°C. Examining model performance broadly over both heat events and 27 sites, COAMPS has temperature RMS errors averaging 1.9°C, while NAM has RMSEs of 2.5°C. COAMPS highresolution wind and temperature predictions captured key features of the observations. For example, during the early summer June heat event, the Long Island south shore coastline experienced a more pronounced sea breeze than was observed for the July heat wave.
机译：我们结合模型和观测资料，详细研究了2011年6月7日至10日和7月21日至24日影响纽约市（New York City）的两个极端高温事件。美国海军的海洋-大气中尺度耦合预报系统（COAMPS）在1公里分辨率的网格上生成整个区域的实时预报，并使用城市雨棚参数化来说明城市对大气的影响。还检查了国家气象局12公里分辨率的北美中尺度（NAM）对天气研究和预报（WRF）模型的实施情况进行的预报。使用基于陆地和海岸线的观测网络来评估预测的准确性。在几天之内，中心城区的观测温度达到39°C或更高，并且由于城市热岛（UHI）的影响，在一夜之间仍保持较高的温度，典型的夜间城乡温差为4°-5°C。广泛研究热事件和27个地点的模型性能，COAMPS的平均温度RMS误差为1.9°C，而NAM的RMSE为2.5°C。 COAMPS的高分辨率风和温度预测记录了观测的关键特征。例如，在六月初夏的高温事件中，长岛南岸海岸线的海风比七月份的热浪更为明显。

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