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首页> 外文期刊>Weather and forecasting >The 2012 Triply Nested, High-Resolution Operational Version of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF): Track and Intensity Forecast Verifications
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The 2012 Triply Nested, High-Resolution Operational Version of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF): Track and Intensity Forecast Verifications

机译：2012年飓风天气研究和预报模型（HWRF）的三重嵌套，高分辨率操作版本：跟踪和强度预报验证

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摘要

The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF) was operationally implemented with a 27-km outer domain and a 9-km moving nest in 2007 (H007) as a tropical cyclone forecast model for the North Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricane basins. During the 2012 hurricane season, a modified version of HWRF (H212), which increased horizontal resolution by adding a third (3 km) nest within the 9-km nest, replaced H007. H212 thus became the first operational model running at convection-permitting resolution. In addition, there were modifications to the initialization, model physics, tracking algorithm, etc. This paper compares H212 hindcast forecasts for the 2010-11 Atlantic hurricane seasons with forecasts from H007 and H3GP, a triply nested research version of HWRF. H212 reduced track forecast errors for almost all forecast times versus H007 and H3GP. H3GP was superior for intensity forecasts, although H212 showed some improvement over H007. Stratifying the cases by initial vertical wind shear revealed that the main weakness for H212 intensity forecasts was for cases with initially high shear. In these cases, H212 over- and under-intensified storms that were initially stronger and weaker, respectively. These results suggest the primary deficiency negatively impacting H212 intensity forecasts, especially in cases of rapid intensification, was that physics calls were too infrequent for the 3-km inner mesh. Correcting this deficiency along with additional modifications in the 2013 operational version yielded improved track and intensity forecasts. These intensity forecasts were comparable to statistical-dynamical models, showing that dynamical models can contribute to a decrease in operational forecast errors.
机译：作为北大西洋和东太平洋飓风盆地的热带气旋预报模型，2007年在飓风天气研究和预报模型（HWRF）的实际运行中使用了27公里的外域和9公里的移动巢穴（H007）。在2012年飓风季节，HWRF（H212）的改良版通过在9公里长的巢穴内增加了第三个（3 km）巢穴来提高水平分辨率，取代了H007。因此，H212成为第一个以对流允许分辨率运行的运行模型。此外，还对初始化，模型物理，跟踪算法等进行了修改。本文将2010-11年大西洋飓风季节的H212后预报与H007的三重嵌套研究版本H007和H3GP的预报进行了比较。与H007和H3GP相比，H212几乎减少了所有预报时间的轨道预报误差。 H3GP在强度预测方面表现优异，尽管H212比H007有所改善。通过初始垂直风切变对案例进行分层显示，H212强度预报的主要弱点是最初具有高切变的案例。在这些情况下，H212风暴强度过大和强度减弱，最初分别较强和较弱。这些结果表明，主要缺陷对H212强度预测有负面影响，特别是在快速强化的情况下，这是因为对于3 km的内部网格来说，物理调用太少了。纠正此缺陷并在2013操作版本中进行了其他修改，从而改善了航迹和强度预报。这些强度预测可与统计动力模型相媲美，表明动力模型可有助于减少运营预测误差。

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