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首页> 外文期刊>Weather and forecasting >Capabilities and Limitations of Convection-Permitting WRF Simulations of Lake-Effect Systems over the Great Salt Lake
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Capabilities and Limitations of Convection-Permitting WRF Simulations of Lake-Effect Systems over the Great Salt Lake

机译：大盐湖上影响湖泊的对流允许WRF模拟的能力和局限性

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Although previous studies suggest that the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model can produce physically realistic banded Great Salt Lake-effect (GSLE) precipitation features, the accuracy and reliability of these simulations for forecasting applications remains unquantified. The ability of the WRF to simulate nonbanded GSLE features is also unknown. This paper uses subjective, traditional, and object-based verification to evaluate convection-permitting (1.33-km grid spacing) WRF simulations of 11 banded and 8 nonbanded GSLE events. In all simulations, the WRF was configured with the Thompson microphysics and the Yonsei University (YSU) planetary boundary layer parameterizations. Subjectively, a majority of the simulations of banded GSLE events produce physically realistic precipitation features. In contrast, simulations of nonbanded GSLE events rarely produce physically realistic precipitation features and sometimes erroneously produce banded precipitation features. Simulations of banded GSLE events produce equitable threat scores (ETSs) comparable to other convective-storm verification studies, whereas simulations of nonbanded events exhibit lower ETSs. Object-based verification shows that the WRF tends to generate precipitation to the right (relative to the flow) and downstream of observed. These results, although based on a specific WRF parameterization suite, suggest that deterministic prediction of GSLE using convection-permitting models will prove challenging in practice with current numerical models. In addition, identifying and addressing the causes of the rightward and downstream precipitation bias is necessary to achieve optimal performance from future probabilistic and/or deterministic high-resolution forecast systems.
机译：尽管以前的研究表明，天气研究和预报（WRF）模型可以产生物理上逼真的带状大盐湖效应（GSLE）降水特征，但这些模拟在预报应用中的准确性和可靠性仍未量化。 WRF模拟非带区GSLE功能的能力也是未知的。本文使用主观，传统和基于对象的验证来评估11个带状和8个非带状GSLE事件的对流允许（1.33 km网格间距）WRF模拟。在所有模拟中，WRF均配置了汤普森微物理学和延世大学（YSU）行星边界层参数设置。主观上，带状GSLE事件的大多数模拟都产生了物理上真实的降水特征。相比之下，对非带状GSLE事件的模拟很少会产生物理上逼真的降水特征，有时会错误地产生带状降水特征。带状GSLE事件的模拟产生的公平威胁评分（ETS）可与其他对流风暴验证研究相比，而非带状事件的模拟则显示较低的ETS。基于对象的验证表明，WRF倾向于在观测到的右侧（相对于流量）和下游产生降水。这些结果尽管基于特定的WRF参数化套件，但表明使用对流允许模型对GSLE进行确定性预测在实践中将对当前的数值模型产生挑战。此外，从未来的概率和/或确定性高分辨率预报系统中获得最佳性能，必须识别并解决右偏和下游降水偏向的原因。

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