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首页> 外文期刊>Weather and forecasting >Forecasting a Large Number of Tropical Cyclone Intensities around Japan Using a High-Resolution Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Model
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Forecasting a Large Number of Tropical Cyclone Intensities around Japan Using a High-Resolution Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Model

机译：利用高分辨率海气耦合模型预测日本周围的大量热带气旋强度

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摘要

This work quantifies the benefits of using a high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled model in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts in the vicinity of Japan. To do so, a large number of high-resolution calculations were performed by running the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) nonhydrostatic atmospheric mesoscale model (AMSM) and atmosphere-ocean coupled mesoscale model (CMSM). A total of 281 3-day forecasts were compiled for 34 TCs from April 2009 to September 2012 for each model. The performance of these models is compared with the JMA global atmospheric spectral model (GSM) that is used for the operational TC intensity guidance. The TC intensities are better predicted by CMSM than the other models. The improvement rates in CMSM relative to GSM and AMSM generally increase with increasing forecast time (FT). CMSM is better than GSM and AMSM by 27.4% and 21.3% at FT = 48 h in terms of minimum sea level pressure, respectively. Regarding the maximum wind speed, CMSM is better than GSM and AMSM by 12.8% and 19.5% at FT = 48 h, respectively. This is due to smaller initial intensity errors and sea surface cooling consistent with in situ observations that suppress erroneous TC intensification. Thus, a high-resolution coupled model is promising for TC intensity prediction in the area surrounding Japan, where most of the TCs are in a decay stage. In contrast, coupling to the upper-ocean model yields only a negligible difference in the TC track forecast skill on average.
机译：这项工作量化了在日本附近的热带气旋（TC）强度预报中使用高分辨率气海耦合模型的好处。为此，通过运行日本气象厅（JMA）的非静压大气中尺度模型（AMSM）和大气-海洋耦合中尺度模型（CMSM），进行了大量的高分辨率计算。从2009年4月到2012年9月，每种型号的TC共收集了281个为期3天的3天预报。将这些模型的性能与用于运行TC强度指导的JMA全球大气光谱模型（GSM）进行了比较。 CMSM可以比其他模型更好地预测TC强度。相对于GSM和AMSM，CMSM的改进率通常随预测时间（FT）的增加而增加。就最小海平面压力而言，在FT = 48 h时，CMSM分别比GSM和AMSM分别高27.4％和21.3％。关于最大风速，在FT = 48 h时，CMSM分别比GSM和AMSM好12.8％和19.5％。这是由于较小的初始强度误差和海面冷却与抑制错误TC强化的原位观测结果一致。因此，高分辨率耦合模型有望在日本周围地区进行TC强度预测，因为该地区大多数TC处于衰减阶段。相比之下，与上层海洋模型耦合后，TC轨迹预报技能的平均差异仅可忽略不计。

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