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A Skillful Prediction Model for Winter NAO Based on Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Eurasian Snow Cover

机译：基于大西洋海面温度和欧亚积雪的冬季NAO预报模型

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摘要

A new statistical forecast scheme, referred to as scheme 1, is developed using observed autumn Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and Eurasian snow cover in the preceding autumn to predict the upcoming winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) using the year-to-year increment prediction approach (i.e., DY approach). Two predictors for the year-to-year increment are identified that are available in the preceding autumn. Cross-validation tests for the period 1950-2011 and independent hindcasts for the period 1990-2011 are performed to validate the prediction ability of the proposed technique. The cross-validation test results for 1950-2011 reveal a high correlation coefficient of 0.52 (0.58) between the predicted and observed NAO indices (DY of the NAO). The model also successfully predicts the independent hindcasts for the period 1990-2011 with a correlation coefficient of 0.55 (0.74). In addition, scheme 0 (i.e., anomaly approach) is established using the SST and snow cover anomalies during the preceding autumn. Compared with scheme 0, this new prediction model has higher predictive skill in reproducing the interdecadal variability of NAO. Therefore, this study provides an effective climate prediction scheme for the interannual and interdecadal variability of NAO in boreal winter.
机译：使用观察到的秋季大西洋海表温度（SST）和前一秋季的欧亚积雪，开发了一种新的统计预报方案，称为方案1，以逐年预报即将到来的冬季北大西洋涛动（NAO）增量预测方法（即DY方法）。确定了前一年秋季可用的两个逐年增长的预测因子。进行了1950-2011年期间的交叉验证测试和1990-2011年期间的独立后验，以验证所提出技术的预测能力。 1950-2011年的交叉验证测试结果显示，预测的NAO指数和观察到的NAO指数（NAO的DY）之间的相关系数很高，为0.52（0.58）。该模型还成功地预测了1990-2011年期间的独立后兆，相关系数为0.55（0.74）。此外，方案0（即异常方法）是使用SST和前一个秋季的积雪异常建立的。与方案0相比，该新的预测模型在再现NAO年代际变化方面具有更高的预测能力。因此，本研究为北方冬季NAO的年际和年代际变化提供了有效的气候预测方案。

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