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Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Forecast for Tropical Cyclones Affecting New York State

机译：影响纽约州的热带气旋的统计动态季节性预报

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This study attempts, for the first time, to predict the annual number of tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting New York State (NYS), as part of the effort of the New York State Resiliency Institute for Storms and Emergencies (RISE). A pure statistical prediction model and a statistical-dynamical hybrid prediction model have been developed based on the understanding of the physical mechanism between NYS TCs and associated large-scale climate variability. During the cold phase of El Nino-Southern Oscillation, significant circulation anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean provide favorable conditions for more recurving TCs into NYS. The pure statistical prediction model uses the sea surface temperature (SST) over the equatorial Pacific Ocean from the previous months. Cross validation shows that the correlation between the observed and predicted numbers of NYS TCs is 0.56 for the June 1979-2013 forecasts. Forecasts of the probability of one or more TCs impacting NYS have a Brier skill score of 0.35 compared to climatology. The statistical-dynamical hybrid prediction model uses Climate Forecast System, version 2, SST predictions, which are statistically downscaled to forecast the number of NYS TCs based on a stepwise regression model. Results indicate that the initial seasonal prediction for NYS TCs can be issued in February using the hybrid model, with an update in June using the pure statistical prediction model. Based on the statistical model, for 2014, the predicted number of TCs passing through NYS is 0.33 and the probability of one or more tropical cyclones crossing NYS is 30%, which are both below average and in agreement with the actual activity (0 NYS TCs).
机译：这项研究首次尝试预测影响纽约州（NYS）的热带气旋（TC）的年度数量，这是纽约州风暴与紧急状态适应性研究所（RISE）努力的一部分。基于对NYS TC之间的物理机制以及相关的大规模气候变异性的了解，已经开发了纯统计预测模型和统计动态混合预测模型。在厄尔尼诺-南方涛动的寒冷期，大西洋上的重大环流异常为进一步将TC递回纽约州提供了有利条件。纯统计预测模型使用前几个月赤道太平洋上的海表温度（SST）。交叉验证显示，对于1979-2013年6月的预测，NYS TCs的观测数量与预测数量之间的相关性为0.56。与气候学相比，一个或多个TC影响NYS的可能性的Brier技能得分为0.35。统计-动态混合预测模型使用的气候预测系统版本2是SST预测，根据逐步回归模型对统计量进行了缩减，以预测NYS TC的数量。结果表明，可以使用混合模型在2月发布NYS TC的初始季节性预测，而在6月使用纯统计预测模型进行更新。根据统计模型，2014年通过NYS的TC的预测数量为0.33，一个或多个热带气旋穿过NYS的概率为30％，这既低于平均值，也与实际活动一致（0个NYS TC ）。

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