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Simulation of the climatic effects of natural forcings during the pre-industrial era

机译：工业化之前自然强迫对气候的影响模拟

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The MPM-2, an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, is employed to study the climate system response to natural forcings during the pre-industrial era (1000—1800 AD), with a special focus on the surface air temperature (SAT) evolution. Solarradiation and volcanism are the primary natural forcings during this period. In the MPM-2, the solar radiation forcing determines the long-term trend of the climate system change, and the volcanic forcing intensifies (weakens) this trend. Ultimately, the combination of solar and volcanic forcings dominates the long-term changes of the climate system. These results are in good agreement with other model data or temperature reconstructions. Natural forcings can well explain the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). At the large regional scale, the SAT response to natural forcings is almost coincident with that of the Northern Hemisphere. Based on MPM-2 model results, it is concluded that the global climate gradually became cold duringthe pre-industrial era. However, MPM-2 model results substantially correlate with reconstructed solar and volcanic forcings. Namely, to some great extent, these results strongly rely on the forcing series data we choose. Therefore, in order to accurately simulate the secular variation of the historical climate, it is very important to reconstruct well the solar radiation change and volcanic forcing data are well reconstructed for the past 10000 years, at least for the past 2000 years, in addition to the model improvements. The sensitivity study on the abrupt solar radiation change indicates that the increased solar radiation not only strengthens the nonlinear response of SAT, but intensifies the global hydrological cycle. At the same time, the biosphere is also affected obviously.
机译：MPM-2是中等复杂程度的地球系统模型，用于研究工业化前时期（公元1000-1800年）气候系统对自然强迫的响应，并特别关注地表气温（SAT）的演变。太阳辐射和火山作用是这一时期的主要自然强迫。在MPM-2中，太阳辐射强迫决定了气候系统变化的长期趋势，而火山强迫则加剧（减弱）了这一趋势。归根结底，太阳和火山强迫的结合主导了气候系统的长期变化。这些结果与其他模型数据或温度重建非常吻合。自然强迫可以很好地解释小冰期（LIA）和中世纪温暖期（MWP）。在较大的区域范围内，SAT对自然强迫的反应几乎与北半球的反应一致。根据MPM-2模型的结果，可以得出结论，在工业化前时期，全球气候逐渐变冷。但是，MPM-2模型结果与重建的太阳和火山强迫基本相关。即，这些结果在很大程度上在很大程度上取决于我们选择的强迫序列数据。因此，为了准确地模拟历史气候的长期变化，很好地重建太阳辐射的变化以及至少在过去2000年中至少在过去2000年中重建的火山强迫数据非常重要。模型改进。对太阳辐射突变的敏感性研究表明，太阳辐射的增加不仅增强了SAT的非线性响应，而且加剧了全球水文循环。同时，生物圈也受到明显影响。

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