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首页> 外文期刊>Chinese science bulletin >Can the climate background of western North Pacific typhoon activity be predicted by climate model?
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Can the climate background of western North Pacific typhoon activity be predicted by climate model?

机译：是否可以通过气候模型预测北太平洋西部台风活动的气候背景？

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摘要

Based on the observation and reanalysis data through 1948-2004, the vertical shear of zonal wind, outgoing longwave radiation, and divergence fields in the lower and upper troposphere during summer are revealed to correlate significantly with the concurrent western North Pacific (WNP) typhoon frequency, and they therefore can be regarded as predictors for the WNP typhoon activity anomaly. After that, the 34-year (1970-2003) ensemble hindcast experiments are performed by the nine-level atmospheric general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics Under the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP9L-AGCM), aiming to investigate the numerical predictability of the summer vertical shear of zonal wind and divergence field in the lower troposphere. It is found that the temporal correlation coefficients between the hindcast and observation are 0.70 and 0.62 for the vertical shear of zonal wind and divergence field, respectively. This suggests that the model possesses a large potential skill for predicting the large-scale climate background closely related to the WNP typhoon activity, and the model is therefore capable of performing the real-time numerical prediction of the WNP typhoon activity anomaly to some extent.
机译：根据1948-2004年的观测和再分析数据，揭示了夏季夏季对流层高层和纬向风的垂直切变，外向长波辐射和发散场与同时发生的西北太平洋台风频率显着相关。 ，因此它们可以被视为WNP台风活动异常的预测因子。之后，使用由中国科学院大气物理研究所（IAP9L-AGCM）开发的九级大气普通环流模型进行了为期34年（1970-2003年）的整体后预报实验。低层对流层夏季风垂直切变和发散场的可预测性。结果表明：纬向风垂直切变和发散场的后预报和观测值之间的时间相关系数分别为0.70和0.62。这表明该模型具有很大的潜在能力来预测与WNP台风活动密切相关的大规模气候背景，因此该模型能够在某种程度上对WNP台风活动异常进行实时数值预测。

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