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首页> 外文期刊>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences >El Ni?o-southern oscillation and water resources in the headwaters region of the yellow river: Links and potential for forecasting
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El Ni?o-southern oscillation and water resources in the headwaters region of the yellow river: Links and potential for forecasting

机译：黄河上游地区的厄尔尼诺-南方振荡和水资源：预测的联系和潜力

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This research explores the rainfall-El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and runoff-ENSO relationships and examines the potential for water resource forecasting using these relationships. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Ni?o1.2, Ni?o3, Ni?o4, and Ni?o3.4 were selected as ENSO indicators for cross-correlation analyses of precipitation and runoff. There was a significant correlation (95% confidence level) between precipitation and ENSO indicators during three periods: January, March, and from September to November. In addition, monthly streamflow and monthly ENSO indictors were significantly correlated during three periods: from January to March, June, and from October to December (OND), with lag periods between one and twelve months. Because ENSO events can be accurately predicted one to two years in advance using physical modeling of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the lead time for forecasting runoff using ENSO indicators in the Headwaters Region of the Yellow River could extend from one to 36 months. Therefore, ENSO may have potential as a powerful forecasting tool for water resources in the headwater regions of Yellow River.
机译：这项研究探索了降雨-厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）和径流-ENSO的关系，并使用这些关系检验了水资源预测的潜力。选择了南方涛动指数（SOI），Ni2o1.2，Ni3o3，Ni2o4和Ni3o3.4作为ENSO指标，用于降水和径流的互相关分析。在三个月期间（1月，3月和9月至11月），降水与ENSO指标之间存在显着相关性（置信度为95％）。此外，在三个时期（从一月到三月，六月，从十月到十二月（OND））中，月流量和月度ENSO指标显着相关，滞后时间在1到12个月之间。由于使用耦合的海洋-大气系统的物理模型可以提前1-2年准确地预测ENSO事件，因此使用ENSO指标在黄河源头地区预测径流的提前期可能会从1个月延长到36个月。因此，ENSO可能有潜力成为黄河源头地区水资源的强大预测工具。

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