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首页> 外文期刊>Zoonoses and Public Health >Stochastic simulation model comparing distributions of STEC O157 faecal shedding prevalence between cattle vaccinated with type III secreted protein vaccines and non-vaccinated cattle.
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Stochastic simulation model comparing distributions of STEC O157 faecal shedding prevalence between cattle vaccinated with type III secreted protein vaccines and non-vaccinated cattle.

机译：随机模拟模型比较了接种III型分泌蛋白疫苗的牛和未接种牛的STEC O157粪便脱落流行率的分布。

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Pens of cattle with high Escherichia coli O157:H7 (STEC O157) prevalence at harvest may present a greater risk to food safety than pens of lower prevalence. Vaccination of live cattle against STEC O157 has been proposed as an approach to reduce STEC O157 prevalence in live cattle. Our objective was to create a stochastic simulation model to evaluate the effectiveness of pre-harvest interventions. We used the model to compare STEC O157 prevalence distributions for summer- and winter-fed cattle to summer-fed cattle immunized with a type III secreted protein (TTSP) vaccine. Model inputs were an estimate of vaccine efficacy, observed frequency distributions for number of animals within a pen, and pen-level faecal shedding prevalence for summer and winter. Uncertainty about vaccine efficacy was simulated using a log-normal distribution (mean=58%, SE=0.14). Model outputs were distributions of STEC O157 faecal pen prevalence of summer-fed cattle unvaccinated and vaccinated, and winter-fed cattle unvaccinated. The simulation was performed 5000 times. Summer faecal prevalence ranged from 0% to 80% (average=30%). Thirty-six per cent of summer-fed pens had STEC O157 prevalence >40%. Winter faecal prevalence ranged from 0% to 60% (average=10%). Seven per cent of winter-fed pens had STEC O157 prevalence >40%. Faecal prevalence for summer-fed pens vaccinated with a 58% efficacious vaccine product ranged from 0% to 52% (average=13%). Less than one per cent of vaccinated pens had STEC O157 prevalence >40%. In this simulation, vaccination mitigated the risk of STEC O157 faecal shedding to levels comparable to winter, with the major effects being reduced average shedding prevalence, reduced variability in prevalence distribution, and a reduction in the occurrence of the highest prevalence pens. Food safety decision-makers may find this modelling approach useful for evaluating the value of pre-harvest interventions.
机译：收获时大肠杆菌O157：H7（STEC O157）患病率较高的牛圈可能会比较低感染率的牛圈对食品安全的风险更大。已提出针对STEC O157接种活牛疫苗，以减少STEC O157在活牛中的流行。我们的目标是创建一个随机模拟模型，以评估收获前干预措施的有效性。我们使用该模型比较了夏季和冬季饲养的牛与用III型分泌蛋白（TTSP）疫苗免疫的夏季饲养的牛的STEC O157患病率分布。模型输入是疫苗效力的估计值，观察到的围栏内动物数量的频率分布以及夏季和冬季围栏水平粪便脱落的流行率。使用对数正态分布（平均值= 58％，SE = 0.14）模拟疫苗效力的不确定性。模型输出是未接种疫苗和已接种疫苗的夏季喂养牛和未接种疫苗的STEC O157粪便围栏流行率的分布。模拟执行了5000次。夏季粪便患病率从0％到80％不等（平均= 30％）。 36％的夏季饲喂笔的STEC O157患病率> 40％。冬季粪便患病率从0％到60％不等（平均值= 10％）。 7％的冬季饲喂钢笔的STEC O157患病率> 40％。接种了58％有效疫苗产品的夏季饲喂猪粪的粪便患病率为0％至52％（平均= 13％）。不到百分之一的预防接种钢笔STEC O157患病率> 40％。在此模拟中，接种疫苗可将STEC O157粪便脱落的风险降低到与冬季相当的水平，主要作用是降低平均脱落流行率，减少流行率分布的变异性以及减少最高流行率钢笔的发生。食品安全决策者可能会发现这种建模方法可用于评估收获前干预措施的价值。

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