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首页> 外文期刊>Vaccine >Age-related trends in the timeliness and prediction of medical visits, hospitalizations and deaths due to pneumonia and influenza, British Columbia, Canada, 1998-2004
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Age-related trends in the timeliness and prediction of medical visits, hospitalizations and deaths due to pneumonia and influenza, British Columbia, Canada, 1998-2004

机译：1998-2004年，加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省，与年龄有关的及时性趋势以及对因肺炎和流感引起的就诊，住院和死亡的预测

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The influenza immunization program in North America has been primarily designed to provide direct benefit to vaccinated individuals at highest risk of serious influenza outcomes. Some evidence suggests that immunization of certain age groups may also extend indirect protective benefit to vulnerable populations. Our goal was to identify age groups associated earliest with seasonal influenza activity and who may have the greatest indirect impact at the population level. We examined age-based associations between influenza medical visits and population-wide hospitalization/mortality due to pneumonia & influenza (P&I) using administrative datasets in British Columbia, Canada. A peak week was identified for each age group based on the highest rates observed in a given week for that study year. Mean rates at the peak week were averaged over the study years per age group. Timeliness (T) was defined as the mean difference in days between the first peak in influenza medical visits and population-wide P&I hospitalizations/deaths. Poisson regression was applied to calculate prediction (Pr) as the average proportion of deviance in P&I explained by influenza medical visits. T and Pr were derived by age group, and the product (TxPr) was used as a summary measure to rank potential indirect effects of influenza by age group. Young children (0-23 months) and the elderly (>/=65 years) had the highest peak rates of P&I hospitalization. Children <6m and the elderly had the highest peak rates of P&I mortality. We found no significant differences by age for influenza medical visits in predicting population-wide P&I hospitalizations or deaths. School-aged children (5-19 years) showed the best relative combination of TxPr, followed by preschool-aged children (2-4 years). We conclude that the very young and old suffer the greatest morbidity due to P&I, and an indirect role for school-aged children in anticipating the risk to others warrants further evaluation.
机译：北美的流感疫苗接种计划主要旨在为处于严重流感后果高风险中的接种人员提供直接好处。一些证据表明，对某些年龄段的人群进行免疫接种还可能将间接保护益处扩展到脆弱人群。我们的目标是确定与季节性流感活动最早相关的年龄组，并且这些年龄组在人群水平上可能具有最大的间接影响。我们使用加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省的行政数据集，研究了流感医疗就诊与因肺炎和流感（P＆I）引起的全院住院/死亡率之间基于年龄的关联。根据该研究年度在给定一周中观察到的最高比率，为每个年龄组确定一个高峰周。在每个年龄段的研究年中，高峰周的平均率是平均值。时效性（T）定义为流感医疗就诊的第一个高峰与全民P＆I住院/死亡之间的平均天数差。应用Poisson回归来计算预测（Pr），作为流感医疗就诊中P＆I中偏差的平均比例。 T和Pr是按年龄段得出的，乘积（TxPr）被用作汇总量度，以按年龄段对流感的潜在间接影响进行排名。幼儿（0-23个月）和老人（> / = 65岁）的P＆I住院高峰期最高。 <6m的儿童和老年人的P＆I死亡率峰值最高。我们发现，在预测全人群的P＆I住院或死亡人数时，按流感医疗就诊年龄划分无明显差异。学龄儿童（5-19岁）表现出最佳的TxPr相对组合，其次是学龄前儿童（2-4岁）。我们得出的结论是，由于P＆I，非常年幼的儿童发病率最高，而学龄儿童在预期他人风险方面的间接作用值得进一步评估。

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