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A panel data analysis of trade creation and trade diversion effects: The case of ASEAN-China Free Trade Area

机译：贸易创造和贸易转移效应的面板数据分析：以中国-东盟自由贸易区为例

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摘要

This study uses a theoretically justified gravity model of trade to examine the impact of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) on exports, focusing on trade creation and diversion effects. The model is tested on a sample of 31 countries over the period dating from 1995 to 2010 using aggregated and disaggregated export data for agricultural and manufactured goods and within manufactures for chemical products, as well as for machinery and transport equipment In order to obtain unbiased estimates, multilateral resistance terms are included as regressors and the endogeneity bias of the FTA variables is addressed by controlling for the unobserved specific heterogeneity that is specific to each trade flow. A multinomial PML is also applied to solve the zero trade issue and the presence of heteroskedasticity. The results indicate that ACFTA leads to substantial and significant trade creation. Using disaggregated data, the significant and positive relationship between exports and ACFTA is confirmed in the case of both agricultural and manufactured goods, as well as in the case of the most important manufacturing industries, namely, chemical products and machinery and transport equipment.
机译：这项研究使用理论上合理的贸易引力模型来检验《中国-东盟自由贸易协定》对出口的影响，重点是贸易创造和转移效应。该模型在1995年至2010年期间对31个国家的样本进行了测试，使用了农业和制成品以及化学产品，机械和运输设备的制造商内部和内部的汇总和分类出口数据，以获得无偏估计，包括多边阻力项作为回归变量，并且通过控制每个贸易流所特有的未观察到的特定异质性来解决FTA变量的内生性偏差。多项式PML还可用于解决零贸易问题和异方差的存在。结果表明，ACFTA导致了实质性和重要的贸易创造。使用分类数据，在农产品和制成品以及最重要的制造业（即化学产品，机械和运输设备）中，都确认了出口与ACFTA之间的显着正相关关系。

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