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首页> 外文期刊>Turkish Journal of Agriculture & Forestry >The use of aridity index to assess implications of climatic change for land cover in Turkey
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The use of aridity index to assess implications of climatic change for land cover in Turkey

机译：利用干旱指数评估气候变化对土耳其土地覆盖的影响

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This study was carried out to determine the impacts of climate change on aridity and land cover in Turkey. Data for future (2070s) climate change, according to present conditions (1990s), were estimated from the prediction results of a regional climate model (RCM). The RCM, which was developed in Japan, is based on the MRI model. The potential impacts of climate change were estimated according to the A2 scenario of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Aridity index, the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration, was computed by using measured data for the present condition and estimated data by the RCM for the future years. Changes in aridity were evaluated by comparing the current and future index values. Aridity variables were interpolated to determine the spatial distribution by means of geostatistical methods. Land cover was modelled and mapped by using the present and future aridity index data.In the southern regions of Turkey, especially along Mediterranean coasts, projected precipitation for 2070s will be 29.6% less than the present. On the contrary, an increase (by 22.0%) in precipitation was projected along the coast of Black Sea. The model predicted that the temperature might increase by 2.8-5.5 degrees C in the different regions of the country. This increase in temperature could result in higher evaporative demand of the atmosphere in the future (on the average 18.4 and 22.2% in the Mediterranean and Black Sea coastal regions, respectively and 17.8% in the whole country). Thus, an increase in aridity was foreseen for the whole Turkey except the north-eastern part.A conversion of deciduous broadleaf forest to evergreen needle-leaf forest is predicted in the northern coastal areas when we compare the future land cover with the present situation. The mixed forest vegetation could spread in the interior parts of East Anatolia and the north-western part of the country in the future.
机译：进行这项研究是为了确定气候变化对土耳其的干旱和土地覆盖的影响。根据当前条件（1990年代），根据区域气候模型（RCM）的预测结果估计了未来（2070年代）气候变化的数据。在日本开发的RCM基于MRI模型。根据排放情景特别报告（SRES）的A2情景估算了气候变化的潜在影响。干旱指数，即降水与潜在蒸散量的比率，是通过使用当前状况的实测数据和RCM未来几年的估算数据来计算的。通过比较当前和未来的指标值来评估干旱的变化。通过地统计学方法对干旱变量进行内插以确定空间分布。利用当前和未来的干旱指数数据对土地覆盖进行建模和制图。在土耳其南部地区，特别是地中海沿岸，预计2070年代的降水量将比当前减少29.6％。相反，预计黑海沿岸的降水量将增加（22.0％）。该模型预测该国不同地区的温度可能会升高2.8-5.5摄氏度。温度的升高可能会导致未来大气中更高的蒸发需求（地中海和黑海沿岸地区分别平均为18.4％和22.2％，整个国家平均为17.8％）。因此，预计除东北部以外的整个土耳其的干旱都将增加。当我们将未来的土地覆盖物与目前的状况进行比较时，预计北部沿海地区的落叶阔叶林将转变为常绿的针叶林。将来，混合的森林植被可能会扩散到东安纳托利亚的内部地区和该国的西北地区。

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