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首页> 外文期刊>Doane's Agricultural Report >Do You Really Manage Price Risk or Just the Risk of Regretting a Decision?
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Do You Really Manage Price Risk or Just the Risk of Regretting a Decision?

机译：您是真正管理价格风险还是只顾放弃决策的风险？

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摘要

The Famous "Greed/Fear" Cycle Is Misnamed. One of the first things I learned about market psychology is that markets are supposedly driven by two basic human emotions -- greed and fear. In the famous bell curve model, greed drives market sellers to hold out for unrealistically high prices as a market is rallying, eventually driving out some of the buyers in what is commonly called "price rationing." But by the time it becomes apparent that price rationing has occurred, prices have often "overshot the mark" and begin to drop. Greed is still the driving force among holders of the commodity, however, so it's typically speculative selling that creates the top, The actual holders of the commodity, still beset by greed, are determined to wait for a recovery.
机译：著名的“贪婪/恐惧”循环是错误的。我从市场心理学中学到的第一件事是，市场被认为是由两种基本的人类情感驱动的：贪婪和恐惧。在著名的钟形曲线模型中，随着市场的反弹，贪婪驱使市场卖方坚持不切实际的高价，最终以通常所说的“价格配给”将某些买方驱逐出去。但是，当价格配给发生的时间变得很明显时，价格通常已经“超标”并开始下降。贪婪仍然是商品持有者中的驱动力，因此，通常是投机性的销售创造了顶峰。仍然由贪婪困扰的商品的实际持有者决定等待复苏。

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