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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Advanced Computatioanl Intelligence and Intelligent Informatics >A Study of Influence upon Inflation Posed by Volatility of Housing Price
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A Study of Influence upon Inflation Posed by Volatility of Housing Price

机译：房价波动对通货膨胀的影响研究

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In recent 30 years, countries from the world have attached great attention to the influence on inflation posed by asset price. Real estate market is a very important economic market for any country. Therefore, housing price has become a hot topic for discussion and research in China. Whether housing price will affect a country's inflation or not and to what extent the effect will be are social focuses. Hence, it is feasible to theoretically apply Tobin's Q Theory in this paper, combine the real estate market price with the assets replacement and study the inflationary impact posed by the housing price, through the application of the wealth effect theory. By using monthly statistics of China's real estate market and inflation from the year 2005 to 2014, this paper will conduct a theoretical and empirical research on the influence that housing price has on inflation with the adoption of dynamic analysis methods including Granger Causality Test, impulse response and variance decomposition. Furthermore, this paper is featured with systematic and complete empirical thinking and methodology, comprehensive data selection and distinctive research results associated with the relationship between housing prices and inflations. According to the study result, housing price is the Granger Cause of inflation and will not drive inflation in short time. But as time passes, this effect will be gradually enhanced. This paper suggests that housing price and other price factors should be taken into consideration so as to establish a broad-sense inflation index in China.
机译：近30年来，世界各国高度重视资产价格对通货膨胀的影响。房地产市场对任何国家来说都是非常重要的经济市场。因此，房价已成为中国讨论和研究的热点话题。房价是否会影响一个国家的通货膨胀以及其影响程度将是社会关注的焦点。因此，本文理论上应用托宾Q理论，将房地产市场价格与资产置换相结合，并通过财富效应理论研究房价对通货膨胀的影响是可行的。本文利用2005年至2014年中国房地产市场和通货膨胀的月度统计数据，通过格兰杰因果检验，脉冲响应等动态分析方法，对房价对通货膨胀的影响进行理论和实证研究。和方差分解。此外，本文的特色是系统，完整的经验思维和方法论，全面的数据选择以及与房价和通胀之间的关系相关的独特研究成果。根据研究结果，房价是通货膨胀的格兰杰原因，不会在短期内推动通货膨胀。但是随着时间的流逝，这种效果将逐渐增强。本文建议，应考虑房价和其他价格因素，以便在中国建立广义的通货膨胀指数。

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