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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Agrometeorology >Adapting. cropping systems to future climate change scenario in three agro-climatic zones of Punjab, India
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Adapting. cropping systems to future climate change scenario in three agro-climatic zones of Punjab, India

机译：适应。印度旁遮普邦三个农业气候区的农作物种植系统应对未来的气候变化情景

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摘要

The present study focuses on (1) projections of future climate data (for the years of 2020, 2050 and 2080) from three general circulation models (HadCM3, CCCMA-CGCM2 and CSIRO-MK2) for two scenarios (A2 and B2) for three agro-climatic zones of the Indian Punjab (ii) assessment of climate change impact on productivity of maize-wheat cropping system in moist to dry sub-humid, rice-wheat in hot dry semiarid and cotton-wheat in hot arid zones and (iii) evaluation of shifting planting dates as an adaptation measure to sustain crop yields. The results indicate that in future the magnitude of climate change and variability would vary with agro-climatic zone, model and scenario. Maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall would be higher in moist to dry sub-humid zone than hot arid. Simulations with cropping system model anticipated reduction in yields of all the three cropping systems for future years; however, cotton crop was more vulnerable than maize and rice. Delaying trans/planting of maize by 7 days in sub humid zone, rice by 7-15 days in semi arid and cotton by 21 days in arid zone in future emerged as doable adaptation measure to minimize yield reduction in future
机译：本研究的重点是（1）针对三种情景（A2和B2）的三种情景（HadCM3，CCCMA-CGCM2和CSIRO-MK2）的三种模式（Aad和B2）对未来气候数据（2020、2050和2080年的预测）印度旁遮普邦的农业气候区（ii）评估气候变化对湿至干，半湿润的玉米-小麦种植系统的生产率的影响，在热干燥的半干旱地区的稻麦和在干旱的干旱地区的棉/小麦种植以及（iii ）评估轮播日期作为维持作物单产的适应措施。结果表明，未来气候变化和变化的幅度将随农业气候区，模式和情景而变化。在潮湿至干燥的半湿润地区，最高温度，最低温度和降雨量将高于热干旱地区。种植系统模型的模拟预计未来三年所有三种种植系统的单产都将降低;然而，棉花作物比玉米和水稻更容易受到伤害。将来在半湿润地区将玉米的转种/播种推迟7天，在半干旱地区将水稻推迟7-15天，在干旱区将棉花推迟21天，作为可行的适应措施，应尽量减少未来减产

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