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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Agricultural Engineering Research >Climate change and water resources management in arid and semi-arid regions: prospective and challenges for the 21st century
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Climate change and water resources management in arid and semi-arid regions: prospective and challenges for the 21st century

机译：干旱和半干旱地区的气候变化和水资源管理：21世纪的前景和挑战

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摘要

The overgrowing population and the recent droughts are putting water resources under pressure and calling for new approaches for water planning and management if escalating conflicts are to be avoided and environmental degradation is to be reversed. As countries are using their water resources with growing intensity, poor rainfall increasingly leads to national water crises as water tables fall and reservoirs, wetlands and rivers empty. Global warming could cause further changes, further variability and further uncertainty. The UK Hadley Centre's global climate model was run at a spatial scale of 2.5 by 3.75° (latitude and longitude) grid squares to simulate the global climate according to scenarios of greenhouse gas concentration emission. Runs of the model assuming the emission scenario proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 1995 are analysed here for the 2050s time horizon. Outputs provide estimations of climate variables, such as precipitation and temperature, at a monthly time step. Those results, assumed representative of future climatic conditions, are compared to mean monthly values representative of the current climate and expressed in terms of percentage change. The results show that, for the dry season (April-September), by the 2050s, North Africa and some parts of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria, Jordan and Israel, are expected to have reduced rainfall amounts of 20-25% less than the present mean values. This decrease in rainfall is accompanied by a temperature rise in those areas of between 2 and 2.75℃. For the same period, the temperature in the coastal areas of the Mediterranean countries will rise by about 1.5℃. In wintertime, the rainfall will decrease by about 10-15% but would increase over the Sahara by about 25%. Given the low rainfall rate over the Sahara, the increase by 25% will not bring any significant amount of rain to the region. In wintertime, the temperature in the coastal areas will also increase but by only 1.5℃ on average, while inside the region it will increase by 1.75-2.5℃. In southern Africa (Angola, Namibia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Botswana and South Africa), results suggest an increase of the annual average temperature ranging between 1.5 and 2.5℃ in the south to between 2.5 and 3.℃ in the north. The summer range is between 1.75 and 2.25℃ in the south, and increases towards the north to between 2.75 and 3.0℃ while the winter range is between 1.25 and 2℃ in the south, and increases towards the north to between 2.5 and 2.75℃. On the other hand, the annual average will decrease by 10-15% in the south and by 5-10% in the north. The annual average decrease is 10%. However, some places will have an increase i.e. by 5-20% in South Africa in wintertime. In the Taklimakan region (Tarim Basin) west of China, the annual average temperature is shown to increase by 1.75-2.5℃. Annual average rainfall should increase by 5-> 25% in most of the region but decrease by 5-10% in some small parts. In summer, an increase by 5-15% is indicated in most of the region, and an increase by up to 25% or more during the wintertime. In the Thar Desert (India-Pakistan-Afghanistan), estimations suggest that the annual average increase in temperature ranges from 1.75 to 2.5℃, ranging from 1.5 to 2.25℃ in winter and from 2 to 2.5℃ in summer. Annual average precipitation is shown to decrease by 5-25% in the region. The winter will have values closer to the annual average but the summer will have more decrease and most of the region will see a decrease closer to 25%. In the Aral Sea basin (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan), estimates suggest an annual average increase in temperature ranging from 1.75 to 2.25℃, higher in summer (between 2 and 2.75℃) than in winter (between 1.5 and 2℃). Rainfall should increase by 5-20% annually, in summer increasing by 5-10% in the north but decreasing by up to 5% in the south, while in wintertime, both south and north should undergo increases of 5-10% and 2
机译：人口过剩和最近的干旱使水资源承受压力，并呼吁采取新的水资源规划和管理方法，以防止冲突升级和环境恶化。随着各国越来越多地利用其水资源，由于地下水位下降以及水库，湿地和河流空旷，降雨不足日益导致全国性的水危机。全球变暖可能导致进一步的变化，进一步的变化和不确定性。英国哈德利中心的全球气候模型以2.5 x 3.75°（纬度和经度）的网格规模在空间尺度上运行，以根据温室气体浓度排放的情景模拟全球气候。在此分析了假设政府间气候变化专门委员会于1995年提出的排放情景的模型运行情况，此处涉及2050年代的时间范围。输出以每月的时间步长估算气候变量，例如降水和温度。假定代表未来气候条件的那些结果与代表当前气候的月平均值进行比较，并以百分比变化表示。结果表明，在干旱季节（4月至9月），到2050年代，北非和埃及，沙特阿拉伯，伊朗，叙利亚，约旦和以色列的某些地区的降雨量预计将减少20-25％小于当前平均值。降雨量的减少伴随着温度在2至2.75℃之间升高。在同一时期，地中海沿岸国家的温度将上升约1.5℃。在冬季，降雨量将减少约10-15％，但在撒哈拉沙漠将增加约25％。由于撒哈拉以南的降雨率较低，因此增加25％不会为该地区带来大量降雨。冬季，沿海地区的温度也会升高，但平均只会升高1.5℃，而区域内部的温度只会升高1.75-2.5℃。在南部非洲（安哥拉，纳米比亚，莫桑比克，津巴布韦，赞比亚，博茨瓦纳和南非），结果表明，南部地区的年平均气温上升了1.5到2.5℃，北部上升了2.5到3℃。夏季的南部范围在1.75至2.25℃之间，向北增加至2.75至3.0℃之间，而南部的冬季范围在1.25至2℃之间，而向北的范围则在2.5至2.75℃之间。另一方面，南部地区的年平均水平将下降10-15％，北部地区的年平均水平将下降5-10％。年平均减少量为10％。但是，冬季某些地方的南非将增加5-20％。在中国西部的塔克拉玛干地区（塔里木盆地），年平均气温升高了1.75-2.5℃。在该地区的大部分地区，年平均降雨量应增加5-> 25％，但在一些小部分地区则减少5-10％。在夏季，该地区的大部分地区表明增加了5-15％，而冬季则增加了多达25％或更多。据估计，在塔尔沙漠（印度-巴基斯坦-阿富汗），温度的年平均升高幅度为1.75至2.5℃，冬季为1.5至2.25℃，夏季为2至2.5℃。该地区年平均降水量减少了5-25％。冬季的值将接近年均值，但夏季的值将减少更多，并且该地区大部分地区的值将接近25％。在咸海盆地（哈萨克斯坦，土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦），估计表明年平均温度升高在1.75至2.25℃之间，夏季（2至2.75℃之间）高于冬季（1.5至2℃之间）。每年的降雨量应增加5-20％，夏季的北部增加5-10％，而南部的减少最多5％，而冬季，南部和北部的降雨量都应增加5-10％和2

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