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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Asian Economics >How dependent is the Chinese economy on exports and in what sense has its growth been export-led?
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How dependent is the Chinese economy on exports and in what sense has its growth been export-led?

机译：中国经济对出口的依赖程度如何？在何种意义上其增长是由出口带动的？

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摘要

This paper studies the interaction between foreign trade and domestic demand and supply in China's economic transformation. It compares China's export dependency with other economies using input-output analysis. The paper also conducts econometric analysis of provincial level data to examine causality between the growth of foreign trade and components of domestic demand, and causality between the growth of foreign trade and total factor productivity. The main message is that China's export dependency is significantly lower than implied by the headline exports-to-GDP ratio. Moreover, the contribution of export to economic growth in China came mainly from its impact on total factor productivity growth from a supply perspective rather than its multiplier effect from a demand perspective. This relationship was found to be stronger in the more developed coastal areas than in the less developed inland areas.
机译：本文研究了中国经济转型中对外贸易与内需与供给之间的相互作用。它使用投入产出分析将中国的出口依存度与其他经济体进行了比较。本文还对省级数据进行了计量分析，以检验对外贸易增长与内需构成之间的因果关系，以及对外贸易增长与全要素生产率之间的因果关系。主要信息是，中国的出口依存度大大低于整体出口对国内生产总值的比重所隐含的含义。此外，出口对中国经济增长的贡献主要来自供应角度对全要素生产率增长的影响，而非需求角度的乘数效应。发现这种关系在较发达的沿海地区比不发达的内陆地区更牢固。

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