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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Climate >Dynamical downscaling over the Great Lakes Basin of North America using the WRF regional climate model: the impact of the Great Lakes system on regional greenhouse warming.
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Dynamical downscaling over the Great Lakes Basin of North America using the WRF regional climate model: the impact of the Great Lakes system on regional greenhouse warming.

机译：使用WRF区域气候模型对北美大湖盆地进行动态缩减：大湖系统对区域温室效应的影响。

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The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is employed to dynamically downscale global warming projections produced using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). The analyses are focused on the Great Lakes Basin of North America and the climate change projections extend from the instrumental period (1979-2001) to midcentury (2050-60) at a spatial resolution of 10 km. Because WRF does not currently include a sufficiently realistic lake component, simulations are performed using lake water temperature provided by D.V. Mironov's freshwater lake model "FLake" forced by atmospheric fields from the global simulations. Results for the instrumental era are first compared with observations to evaluate the ability of the lake model to provide accurate lake water temperature and ice cover and to analyze the skill of the regional model. It is demonstrated that the regional model, with its finer resolution and more comprehensive physics, provides significantly improved results compared to those obtained from the global model. It much more accurately captures the details of the annual cycle and spatial pattern of precipitation. In particular, much more realistic lake-induced precipitation and snowfall patterns downwind of the lakes are predicted. The midcentury projection is analyzed to determine the impact of downscaling on regional climate changes. The emphasis in this final phase of the analysis is on the impact of climate change on winter snowfall in the lee of the lakes. It is found that future changes in lake surface temperature and ice cover under warmer conditions may locally increase snowfall as a result of increased evaporation and the enhanced lake effect.
机译：天气研究和预报模型（WRF）用于动态缩减使用社区气候系统模型（CCSM）生成的全球变暖预测。分析的重点是北美大湖盆地，气候变化预测从仪器期（1979-2001年）一直延伸到世纪中叶（2050-60年），空间分辨率为10 km。由于WRF当前不包括足够逼真的湖泊分量，因此使用D.V提供的湖泊水温进行模拟。 Mironov的淡水湖泊模型“ FLake”受全球模拟中的大气场强迫。首先将仪器时代的结果与观测值进行比较，以评估湖泊模型提供准确的湖泊水温和冰盖的能力，并分析区域模型的技巧。结果表明，与从全局模型获得的结果相比，具有更高分辨率和更全面物理学的区域模型提供了显着改善的结果。它可以更准确地捕获降水的年度周期和空间格局的细节。特别是，预测了顺风向湖顺湖的降雨和降雪规律。对本世纪中叶的预测进行了分析，以确定缩小规模对区域气候变化的影响。分析的最后阶段的重点是气候变化对湖泊背风处冬季降雪的影响。人们发现，由于蒸发量增加和湖泊效应增强，在较温暖的条件下，未来湖面温度和冰盖的变化可能会局部增加降雪量。

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