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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Climate >Twenty-First-Century Arctic Climate Change in CCSM4TI Twenty-First-Century Arctic Climate Change in CCSM4
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Twenty-First-Century Arctic Climate Change in CCSM4TI Twenty-First-Century Arctic Climate Change in CCSM4

机译：CCSM4TI中的二十一世纪北极气候变化

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The authors summarize the twenty-first-century Arctic climate simulated by NCAR's Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). Under a strong radiative forcing scenario, the model simulates a much warmer, wetter, cloudier, and stormier Arctic climate with considerably less sea ice and a fresher Arctic Ocean. The high correlation among the variables composing these changes-temperature, precipitation, cloudiness, sea level pressure (SLP), and ice concentration-suggests that their close coupling collectively represents a fingerprint of Arctic climate change. Although the projected changes in CCSM4 are generally consistent with those in other GCMs, several noteworthy features are identified. Despite more global warming in CCSM4, Arctic changes are generally less than under comparable greenhouse forcing in CCSM3, as represented by Arctic amplification (16% weaker) and the date of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean (20 years later). Autumn is the season of the most pronounced Arctic climate change among all the primary variables. The changes are very similar across the five ensemble members, although SLP displays the largest internal variability. The SLP response exhibits a significant trend toward stronger extreme Arctic cyclones, implying greater wave activity that would promote coastal erosion. Based on a commonly used definition of the Arctic (the area encompassing the 10 degrees C July air temperature isotherm), the region shrinks by about 40% during the twenty-first century, in conjunction with a nearly 10-K warming trend poleward of 70 degrees N. Despite this pronounced long-term warming, CCSM4 simulates a hiatus in the secular Arctic climate trends during a decade-long stretch in the 2040s and to a lesser extent in the 2090s. These pauses occur despite averaging over five ensemble members and are remarkable because they happen under the most extreme greenhouse-forcing scenario and in the most climatically sensitive region of the world.
机译：作者总结了由NCAR的社区气候系统模型第4版（CCSM4）模拟的21世纪北极气候。在强烈的辐射强迫情况下，该模型模拟了北极气候变暖，湿润，多云和暴风雨，海冰明显减少，北冰洋更新鲜。构成这些变化的变量之间的高度相关性-温度，降水，阴天，海平面压力（SLP）和冰浓度-建议它们紧密耦合共同代表了北极气候变化的特征。尽管CCSM4中预计的更改通常与其他GCM中的更改一致，但仍可以识别一些值得注意的功能。尽管CCSM4的全球变暖加剧，但北极的变化通常要小于CCSM3的类似温室强迫下的变化，以北极放大（减弱16％）和季节性无冰的北冰洋日期（20年后）为代表。在所有主要变量中，秋季是北极气候变化最明显的季节。尽管SLP显示出最大的内部可变性，但五个合奏成员的变化非常相似。 SLP响应呈现出向更强的极端北极气旋发展的显着趋势，这意味着更大的波浪活动将促进海岸侵蚀。根据常用的北极定义（涵盖7月气温等温线10摄氏度的区域），该区域在二十一世纪缩小了约40％，而近10 K的变暖趋势则是向南70极尽管出现了这种明显的长期变暖，CCSM4在2040年代长达十年的时间里模拟了世俗北极气候趋势中的中断，而在2090年代则较小。尽管平均超过五个合奏成员，但仍会出现这些停顿现象，这是非常值得注意的，因为它们是在最极端的温室强迫情况下以及在世界上最气候敏感的地区发生的。

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