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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of community psychology >USING PSYCHOLOGICAL THEORY TO PREDICT VOTING INTENTIONS
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USING PSYCHOLOGICAL THEORY TO PREDICT VOTING INTENTIONS

机译：利用心理理论预测投票意向

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摘要

Voting is an essential component of civic engagement. To demonstrate the utility of a reasoned action approach to predict voting, we created an instrument that measured non-normative political beliefs and voting intentions. We identified political beliefs and attitudes of the Republican Party, Democratic Party, Libertarian Party, Tea Party, and Occupy Wall Street Movement. A total of 2,637 participants from Mechanical Turk completed the survey using Survey Monkey. We identified the three political belief items best characterizing each political ideology and associated attitudes and beliefs. Regression analysis confirmed the utility of our approach to predict intentions to vote for candidates who were concordant with participants' attitudes, beliefs, and norms. The reasoned action analyses accounted for a majority of the variance in intention to vote for candidates sharing respondent favored political beliefs and specific political positions. The study is the first to demonstrate that reasoned action approach is an effective tool for predicting civic engagement.
机译：投票是公民参与的重要组成部分。为了证明采用理性行动方法预测投票的效用，我们创建了一种衡量非规范性政治信念和投票意图的工具。我们确定了共和党，民主党，自由党，茶党和占领华尔街运动的政治信仰和态度。来自Mechanical Turk的总共2637名参与者使用Survey Monkey完成了调查。我们确定了最能代表每种政治意识形态以及相关态度和信念的三个政治信念项。回归分析证实了我们的方法可用于预测与参与者的态度，信念和准则相一致的候选人的投票意图。合理的行动分析占了投票意愿的大多数差异，这些投票意向分享了受访者偏爱的政治信念和特定政治立场的候选人。该研究首次证明合理的行动方法是预测公民参与的有效工具。

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