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The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling

机译：计算机天气预报和气候模拟的起源

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Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. A fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
机译：不断增加的地球物理现象的数值模拟极大地增加了我们对地球系统中复杂过程的理解。持续不断的气候变化对人类的影响将是深远的。地球系统模型能够复制过去几千年的气候状况，并且是我们预测气候未来的最佳手段。数值预报和气候模拟的基本思想是在大约一个世纪之前发展起来的，这远比第一台电子计算机的建造要早。在将数值预测付诸实践之前，有几个主要的实际障碍需要克服。对大气动力学的更全面了解使得可以简化方程组。常规的无线电探空仪对自由大气层的观测以及后来的卫星数据提供了初始条件;制定了稳定的有限差分方案;强大的电子计算机提供了一种实用的手段，可以进行预测天气变化所需的惊人计算。在过去的50年中，天气预报和气候建模取得了巨大进步。在本演示中，我们将通过ENIAC集成追溯到今天的计算机预测历史。确定性预测的有用范围每十年大约增加一天，随着对复杂性不断提高的地球系统模型的发展，我们对气候变化的理解也在迅速增长。 （c）2007 Elsevier Inc.保留所有权利。

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