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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Computational Physics >Probabilistic models and uncertainty quantification for the ionization reaction rate of atomic Nitrogen
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Probabilistic models and uncertainty quantification for the ionization reaction rate of atomic Nitrogen

机译：原子氮电离反应速率的概率模型和不确定性量化

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摘要

The objective in this paper is to analyze some stochastic models for estimating the ionization reaction rate constant of atomic Nitrogen (N+e -→N ~++2e ~-). Parameters of the models are identified by means of Bayesian inference using spatially resolved absolute radiance data obtained from the Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) wind-tunnel. The proposed methodology accounts for uncertainties in the model parameters as well as physical model inadequacies, providing estimates of the rate constant that reflect both types of uncertainties. We present four different probabilistic models by varying the error structure (either additive or multiplicative) and by choosing different descriptions of the statistical correlation among data points. In order to assess the validity of our methodology, we first present some calibration results obtained with manufactured data and then proceed by using experimental data collected at EAST experimental facility. In order to simulate the radiative signature emitted in the shock-heated air plasma, we use a one-dimensional flow solver with Park's two-temperature model that simulates non-equilibrium effects. We also discuss the implications of the choice of the stochastic model on the estimation of the reaction rate and its uncertainties. Our analysis shows that the stochastic models based on correlated multiplicative errors are the most plausible models among the four models proposed in this study. The rate of the atomic Nitrogen ionization is found to be (6.2±3.3)×10 ~(11)cm ~3mol ~(-1)s ~(-1) at 10,000K.
机译：本文的目的是分析一些随机模型，以估算原子氮的电离反应速率常数（N + e-→N〜++ 2e〜-）。使用从电弧冲击管（EAST）风洞获得的空间分辨的绝对辐射数据，通过贝叶斯推理来识别模型的参数。所提出的方法考虑了模型参数中的不确定性以及物理模型的不足，从而提供了反映两种不确定性的速率常数的估计值。通过改变错误结构（加法或乘法）并选择数据点之间统计相关性的不同描述，我们提出了四种不同的概率模型。为了评估我们方法的有效性，我们首先介绍一些使用制造数据获得的校准结果，然后使用在EAST实验设施中收集的实验数据进行下一步。为了模拟在冲击加热的空气等离子体中发出的辐射特征，我们使用了带有Park的两温模型的一维流动求解器，该模型模拟了非平衡效应。我们还讨论了随机模型的选择对反应速率及其不确定性估计的影响。我们的分析表明，基于相关乘性误差的随机模型是本研究提出的四个模型中最合理的模型。在10,000K下，原子氮离子化速率为（6.2±3.3）×10〜（11）cm〜3mol〜（-1）s〜（-1）。

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