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Impacts of 4DVAR Assimilation of Airborne Doppler Radar Observations on Numerical Simulations of the Genesis of Typhoon Nuri (2008)

机译:机载多普勒雷达观测的4DVAR同化对台风努里(2008)发生的数值模拟的影响

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The Weather Research and Forecasting Model and its four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) system are employed to examine the impact of airborne Doppler radar observations on predicting the genesis of Typhoon Nuri (2008). Electra Doppler Radar (ELDORA) airborne radar data, collected during the Office of Naval Research sponsored Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 field experiment, are used for data assimilation experiments. Two assimilation methods are evaluated and compared, namely, the direct assimilation of radar-measured radial velocity and the assimilation of three-dimensional wind analysis derived from the radar radial velocity. Results show that direct assimilation of radar radial velocity leads to better intensity forecasts, as this process enhances the development of convective systems and improves the inner-core structure of Nun, whereas assimilation of the radar-retrieved wind analysis is more beneficial for tracking forecasts, as it results in improved environmental flows. The assimilation of both the radar-retrieved wind and the radial velocity can lead to better forecasts in both intensity and tracking, if the radial velocity observations are assimilated first and the retrieved winds are then assimilated in the same data assimilation window. In addition, experiments with and without radar data assimilation led to developing and non-developing disturbances in numerical simulations of Nun's genesis. The improved initial conditions and forecasts from the data assimilation imply that the enhanced midlevel vortex and moisture conditions are favorable for the development of deep convection in the center of the pouch and eventually contribute to Nun's genesis. The improved simulations of the convection and associated environmental conditions produce enhanced upper-level warming in the core region and lead to the drop in sea level pressure
机译:利用天气研究和预报模型及其四度变分数据同化(4DVAR)系统,研究机载多普勒雷达观测对预报台风努里(2008)发生的影响。在海军研究办公室赞助的2008年热带气旋结构实地实验期间收集的伊莱克多普勒雷达(ELDORA)机载雷达数据用于数据同化实验。对两种同化方法进行了评估和比较,分别是雷达测得的径向速度的直接同化和从雷达径向速度得出的三维风分析的同化。结果表明,雷达径向速度的直接同化可以带来更好的强度预报,因为此过程增强了对流系统的发展并改善了尼姑的内核结构,而同化雷达风分析法则对跟踪预报更有利,因为它可以改善环境流量。如果首先将径向速度观测值进行同化,然后在相同的数据同化窗口中对获取的风进行同化,则对雷达回风和径向速度的同化可导致强度和跟踪方面的更好预测。此外,在有和没有雷达数据同化的情况下,对尼姑的起源进行数值模拟时,都会产生发展性和非发展性的干扰。初始条件的改善和来自数据同化的预测表明,增强的中层涡旋和湿度条件有利于小袋中心深对流的发展,并最终有助于尼姑的成因。对流和相关环境条件的改进模拟使核心区域的上层变暖加剧,并导致海平面压力下降

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