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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Economic Entomology >Degree-Day Prediction Models for the Flight Phenology of Western Bean Cutworm (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) Assessed with the Concordance Correlation Coefficient
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Degree-Day Prediction Models for the Flight Phenology of Western Bean Cutworm (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) Assessed with the Concordance Correlation Coefficient

机译：基于协和相关系数的西豆角虫（鳞翅目：夜蛾科）飞行物候学度日预测模型

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摘要

Western bean cutworm, Striacosta albicosta (Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), is a native, univoltine pest of corn and dry beans in North America. The current degree-day model for predicting a specified percentage of yearly moth flight involves heat unit accumulation above 10 degrees C after 1 May. However, because the moth's observed range has expanded into the northern and eastern United States, there is concern that suitable temperatures before May could allow for significant S. albicosta development. Daily blacklight moth catch and temperature data from four Nebraska locations were used to construct degree-day models using simple or sine-wave methods, starting dates between 1 January and 1 May, and lower (-5 to 15 degrees C) and upper (20 to 43.3 degrees C) developmental thresholds. Predicted dates of flight from these models were compared with observed flight dates using independent datasets to assess model performance. Model performance was assessed with the concordance correlation coefficient to concurrently evaluate precision and accuracy. The best model for predicting timing of S. albicosta flight used simple degree-day calculations beginning on 1 March, a 3.3 degrees C (38 degrees F) lower threshold, and a 23.9 degrees C (75 degrees F) upper threshold. The revised cumulative flight model indicated field scouting to estimate moth egg density at the time of 25% flight should begin when 1,432 degree-days (2,577 degree-days degrees F) have accumulated. These results underscore the importance of assessing multiple parameters in phenological models and utilizing appropriate assessment methods, which in this case may allow for improved timing of field scouting for S. albicosta.
机译：西部豆角虫，Striacosta albicosta（Smith）（鳞翅目：夜蛾科），是北美玉米和干豆的原生单伏虫。当前的度日模型用于预测年蛾的特定飞行百分比，其中涉及5月1日之后高于10摄氏度的热量单位积聚。但是，由于蛾的观测范围已扩展到美国北部和东部，因此有人担心，5月之前的合适温度可能会使白粉病菌显着发展。使用内布拉斯加州四个地点的每日黑光蛾捕获和温度数据，使用简单或正弦波方法构建度日模型，起始日期为1月1日至5月1日，较低（-5至15摄氏度）和较高（20摄氏度）到43.3摄氏度）。使用独立的数据集将这些模型的预计飞行日期与观察到的飞行日期进行比较，以评估模型性能。使用一致性相关系数评估模型性能，以同时评估精度和准确性。预测沙门氏菌飞行时机的最佳模型是使用从3月1日开始的简单度日计算，下限3.3摄氏度（38华氏度）和上限23.9摄氏度（75华氏度）。修订后的累积飞行模型表明，应在累积了1,432度-天（2,577度-日华氏度）后开始实地调查，以估计25％飞行时的蛾卵密度。这些结果强调了在物候模型中评估多个参数并利用适当的评估方法的重要性，在这种情况下，这可能有助于改善白粉病菌田间侦察的时机。

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