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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of economic growth >History's a curse: leapfrogging, growth breaks and growth reversals under international borrowing without commitment
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History's a curse: leapfrogging, growth breaks and growth reversals under international borrowing without commitment

机译：历史是一个诅咒：在没有承诺的情况下，国际借款下的跨越式增长，增长中断和增长逆转

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摘要

A simple open-economy AK model with collateral constraints accounts for growth breaks and growth-reversal episodes, during which countries face abrupt changes in their growth rate that may lead to either growth miracles or growth disasters. Absent commitment to investment by the borrowing country, imperfect contract enforcement leads to an informational lag such that the debt contracted upon today depends upon the past stock of capital. The no-commitment delay originates a history effect by which the richer a country has been in the past, the more it can borrow today. For (arbitrarily) small delays, the history effect offsets the growth benefits from international borrowing and dampens growth, and it leads to both leapfrogging in long-run levels and growth breaks. When large enough, the history effect originates growth reversals arid we connect the latter to leapfrogging. Finally, we argue that the model accords with the reported evidence on changes in the growth rate at break dates. We also provide examples showing that leapfrogging and growth reversals may coexist, so that currently poor but fast-growing countries experiencing sharp growth reversals may end up, in the long-run, significantly richer than currently rich but declining countries.
机译：具有附带约束条件的简单开放经济AK模型可解释增长中断和增长反转事件，在此期间，各国面临其增长率的突然变化，这可能导致增长奇迹或增长灾难。借款国缺乏对投资的承诺，合同执行不力导致信息滞后，因此，今天签订的债务取决于过去的资本存量。无承诺的拖延产生了一种历史效应，过去一个国家越富裕，它今天可以借的越多。对于（任意）较小的延迟，历史效应抵消了国际借款的增长收益并抑制了增长，并导致长期水平的跨越和增长中断。当足够大时，历史效应会导致增长逆转，而我们将后者与跨越联系起来。最后，我们认为该模型与休息日增长率变化的报道证据相符。我们还提供了一些例子，表明跨越式增长和增长逆转可能并存，因此从长远来看，当前贫穷但快速增长的国家经历急剧增长逆转可能最终会比目前富有但正在下降的国家更加富裕。

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