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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Economic Methodology >Reflexivity, expectations feedback and almost self-fulfilling equilibria: economic theory, empirical evidence and laboratory experiments
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Reflexivity, expectations feedback and almost self-fulfilling equilibria: economic theory, empirical evidence and laboratory experiments

机译：反身性，期望反馈和几乎自我实现的平衡：经济理论，经验证据和实验室实验

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摘要

We discuss recent work on bounded rationality and learning in relation to Soros' principle of reflexivity and stress the empirical importance of non-rational, almost self-fulfilling equilibria in positive feedback systems. As an empirical example, wediscuss a behavioral asset pricing model with heterogeneous expectations. Bubble and crash dynamics is triggered by shocks to fundamentals and amplified by agents switching endogenously between a mean-reverting fundamental rule and a trend-following rule, based upon their relative performance. We also discuss learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments, showing that in positive feedback systems individuals coordinate expectations on non-rational, almost self-fulfilling equilibria with persistent price fluctuations very different from rational equilibria. Economic policy analysis may benefit enormously by focusing on efficiency and welfare gains in correcting mispricing along almost self-fulfilling equilibria.
机译：我们讨论与索罗斯的反思性原则有关的有限理性和学习的最新工作，并强调非理性，几乎自我实现的均衡在正反馈系统中的经验重要性。作为一个经验例子，我们讨论了一种具有异类期望的行为资产定价模型。泡沫和崩溃动态是由对基本面的冲击触发的，并由代理根据其相对性能在均值回复的基本规则和趋势跟随的规则之间内生地切换而放大。我们还讨论了从预测到预测的实验室实验，结果表明，在正反馈系统中，个人会协调对非理性，几乎自我实现的均衡的期望，并且持续的价格波动与理性均衡大不相同。通过关注效率和福利收益，在几乎实现自我平衡的同时纠正定价错误，经济政策分析可能会受益匪浅。

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