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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Experimental Botany >Improving the use of modelling for projections of climate change impacts on crops and pastures
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Improving the use of modelling for projections of climate change impacts on crops and pastures

机译：改进模型用于预测气候变化对农作物和牧场的影响

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摘要

Projections of climate change impacts on global food supply are largely based on crop and pasture modelling. The consistency of these models with experimental data and their ability to simulate the effects of elevated CO2 and of increased climate variability has been debated. The effects of high temperatures, of increased climate variability and of several limiting factors which interact with elevated CO2 such as soil nutrients, pests and weeds are neither fully understood nor well implemented in leading models. Targeted model developments will be required based on experimental data concerning: (i) the role of extreme climatic events, (ii) the interactions between abiotic factors and elevated CO2, (iii) the genetic variability in plant CO2 and temperature responses, (iv) the interactions with biotic factors, and (v) the effects on harvest quality. To help make better use of the available knowledge, it is envisioned that future crop and pasture modelling studies will need to use a risk assessment approach by combining an ensemble of greenhouse gas emission (or stabilization) scenarios, of regional climate models and of crop and pasture models, as well as an ensemble of adaptation options concerning both management practices and species/varieties
机译：气候变化对全球粮食供应影响的预测主要基于作物和牧场模型。这些模型与实验数据的一致性以及它们模拟二氧化碳升高和气候变异性增加的影响的能力一直存在争议。高温，气候变率增加以及与二氧化碳含量升高相互作用的几种限制因素（例如土壤养分，害虫和杂草）的影响尚未得到充分了解，也未在领先模型中很好地实现。需要基于以下方面的实验数据进行有针对性的模型开发：（i）极端气候事件的作用，（ii）非生物因素与二氧化碳升高之间的相互作用，（iii）植物二氧化碳和温度响应的遗传变异，（iv）与生物因子的相互作用，以及（v）对收获质量的影响。为帮助更好地利用现有知识，可以预见，未来的作物和牧场模型研究将需要通过组合温室气体排放（或稳定）情景，区域气候模型以及作物和作物的情景来使用风险评估方法。牧场模型，以及有关管理措施和物种/品种的适应方案集合

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