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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Experimental Psychology. General >n the Determinants of the Conjunction Fallacy: Probability Versus Inductive Confirmation
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n the Determinants of the Conjunction Fallacy: Probability Versus Inductive Confirmation

机译：n连词谬误的决定因素：概率与归纳确认

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摘要

Major recent interpretations of the conjunction fallacy postulate that people assess the probability of a conjunction according to (non-normative) averaging rules as applied to the constituents’ probabilities or represent the conjunction fallacy as an effect of random error in the judgment process. In the present contribution, we contrast such accounts with a different reading of the phenomenon based on the notion of inductive confirmation as defined by contemporary Bayesian theorists. Averaging rule hypotheses along with the random error model and many other existing proposals are shown to all imply that conjunction fallacy rates would rise as the perceived probability of the added conjunct does. By contrast, our account predicts that the conjunction fallacy depends on the added conjunct being perceived as inductively confirmed. Four studies are reported in which the judged probability versus confirmation of the added conjunct have been systematically manipulated and dissociated. The results consistently favor a confirmation–theoretic account of the conjunction fallacy against competing views. Our proposal is also discussed in connection with related issues in the study of human inductive reasoning.
机译：最近对合取谬误的主要解释是，人们根据适用于选民概率的（非标准）平均规则评估合取概率，或将合取谬误表示为判断过程中随机错误的影响。在当前的贡献中，我们根据当代贝叶斯理论家所定义的归纳确认的概念，将这种解释与对现象的不同解读进行对比。平均规则假设以及随机误差模型和许多其他现有建议均表明，随着可察觉的加合词概率的增加，连词谬误率将上升。相比之下，我们的帐户预测，连词谬误取决于被归纳确认的附加合词。报道了四项研究，其中系统地处理和分离了判断概率与添加的混合词的确认。结果一致地支持了对竞争观点的合取谬误的理论确认。我们的建议还结合人类归纳推理研究中的相关问题进行了讨论。

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