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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition >Communicating Uncertain Experimental Evidence
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Communicating Uncertain Experimental Evidence

机译：交流不确定的实验证据

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摘要

Four experiments examined when laypeople attribute unexpected experimental outcomes to error, in foresight and in hindsight, along with their judgments of whether the data should be published. Participants read vignettes describing hypothetical experiments, along with the result of the initial observation, considered as either a possibility (foresight) or a reality (hindsight). Experiment 1 found that the initial observation seemed more likely to be replicated when viewed in hindsight than in foresight. The remaining experiments contrasted responses to an initialobservation from 1 of the 4 studies that was either expected or unexpected (based on the predictions of participants in Experiment 1). Experiments 2A-C and Experiment 3 found that unexpected results were more likely to be attributed to methodological problems thanwere expected ones-but to the same degree in foresight and in hindsight. Participants in Experiment 4 had more confidence in an explanation for an unexpected outcome when it was mentioned before that outcome was revealed than when it was suggested only after the surprise was known. In all the experiments, most participants recommended collecting more data before publishing the results, especially when they attributed the results to multiple causes. The results suggest that considering the causes of unexpected experimental results in foresight may improve the evaluation and communication of those results in hindsight.
机译：外行人在预见和事后将错误的实验结果归因于错误时进行了四个实验，并进行了对是否应发布数据的判断。参与者阅读了描述假设实验的小插曲，以及初步观察的结果，这些结果被视为可能性（预见）或现实（后见）。实验1发现，以事后观察而非以先见之明，最初的观察似乎更有可能被复制。其余实验对比了预期或未预期的4个研究中的1个对初始观察的响应（基于实验1参与者的预测）。实验2A-C和实验3发现，意料之外的结果更可能归因于方法学问题，而不是预期的结果，但预见和事后观察的程度相同。实验4的参与者对意外结果的解释比在知道意外结果之前才提出的建议更有信心。在所有实验中，大多数参与者建议在发布结果之前收集更多数据，尤其是当他们将结果归因于多种原因时。结果表明，在预见中考虑意外的实验结果的原因可能会改善事后评估中这些结果的评估和沟通。

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