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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Forecasting >The UK Intranational Business Cycle
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The UK Intranational Business Cycle

机译:英国国际商业周期

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The paper uses annual data on real GDP for 12 UK regions and 12 manufactur-ing sectors to derive regional and regional/sectoral business cycles usinga Hodrick–Prescott filter. The cohesion of the cycles is examined via cross-correlations and comparisons made with the regional cycles for Japan, the USAand the euro area. The UK emerges as especially cohesive and efforts to explainthe overall cross-correlations of regional GDP are not very successful owingto the low variance of the explicand; when attention is turned to the sectoral/regional cycles, with their greater variance, it is possible to demonstratethat economic variables such as distance, dissimilarity in structure and levelof output play a significant role in explaining the variance in the cross-correlations. A significant feature of the cross-correlations in relation to thoseof EU countries is that while they continue to provide support for the 'UKidiosyncrasy' they no longer do so as strongly as they did in earlier datasamples. Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
机译:本文使用有关12个英国地区和12个制造业部门的实际GDP的年度数据,使用Hodrick-Prescott过滤器得出区域和区域/部门的商业周期。通过互相关和与日本,美国和欧元区的区域周期比较,检验了周期的凝聚力。英国的凝聚力特别强,由于解释方差很小,解释区域GDP总体相互关系的努力并不十分成功。当注意力转向具有更大方差的部门/区域周期时,有可能证明诸如距离,结构差异和产出水平之类的经济变量在解释互相关方差中起着重要作用。与欧盟国家的相互关系的一个重要特征是,尽管它们继续为“ UKidiosyncrasy”提供支持,但它们不再像以前的数据样本那样强大。版权所有2009 John Wiley&Sons,Ltd.

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