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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Forecasting >Are Household Subjective Forecasts ofPersonal Finances Accurate and Useful?A Directional Analysis of the BritishHousehold Panel Survey
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Are Household Subjective Forecasts ofPersonal Finances Accurate and Useful?A Directional Analysis of the BritishHousehold Panel Survey

机译：家庭对个人理财的主观预测是否准确和有用？对英国家庭面板调查的定向分析

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The purpose of the paper is to analyse the accuracy and usefulness of householdsubjective forecasts of personal finance. We use non-parametric directionalanalysis to assess the subjective forecasts which are based on qualitativejudgments. Using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) we are able toanalyse a large number of individuals over a number of years. We also takeinto account individual characteristics such as gender, age, education andemployment status when assessing their subjective forecasts. The paper extendsthe existing literature in two ways: the accuracy and usefulness of subjectiveforecasts, based on directional analysis, are assessed at the household levelfor the first time. Secondly, we adapt and extend the methods of directionalanalysis, which are applied to the household panel or longitudinal survey.Copyright
机译：本文的目的是分析家庭主观的个人理财预测的准确性和实用性。我们使用非参数定向分析来评估基于定性判断的主观预测。使用英国家庭面板调查（BHPS），我们可以分析许多年来的大量个人。在评估主观预测时，我们还考虑了个人特征，例如性别，年龄，教育程度和就业状况。本文以两种方式扩展了现有文献：基于定向分析的主观预测的准确性和实用性首次在家庭层面进行了评估。其次，我们调整并扩展了定向分析方法，将其应用于家庭面板调查或纵向调查。

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