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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Glaciology >Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations
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Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations

机译：格陵兰岛冰盖投影对模型配方的敏感性

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Physically based projections of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to future sea-level change are subject to uncertainties of the atmospheric and oceanic climatic forcing and to the formulations within the ice flow model itself. Here a higher-order, three-dimensional thermomechanical ice flow model is used, initialized to the present-day geometry. The forcing comes from a high-resolution regional climate model and from a flowline model applied to four individual marine-terminated glaciers, and results are subsequently extended to the entire ice sheet. The experiments span the next 200 years and consider climate scenario SRES A1B. The surface mass-balance (SMB) scheme is taken either from a regional climate model or from a positive-degree-day (PDD) model using temperature and precipitation anomalies from the underlying climate models. Our model results show that outlet glacier dynamics only account for 6-18% of the sea-level contribution after 200 years, confirming earlier findings that stress the dominant effect of SMB changes. Furthermore, interaction between SMB and ice discharge limits the importance of outlet glacier dynamics with increasing atmospheric forcing. Forcing from the regional climate model produces a 14-31% higher sea-level contribution compared to a PDD model run with the same parameters as for IPCC AR4.
机译：格陵兰冰盖对未来海平面变化贡献的基于物理的预测受大气和海洋气候强迫的不确定性以及冰流模型本身内公式的影响。在这里，使用了更高阶的三维热机械冰流模型，并将其初始化为当前的几何形状。强迫来自高分辨率的区域气候模型和应用于四个单独的以海洋为末端的冰川的流线模型，其结果随后扩展到整个冰盖。实验跨越了接下来的200年，并考虑了SRES A1B气候情景。表面质量平衡（SMB）方案是使用区域气候模型或正温度日（PDD）模型（使用基础气候模型的温度和降水异常）得出的。我们的模型结果表明，出口冰川动力学在200年后仅占海平面贡献的6-18％，这证实了早期的发现强调了SMB变化的主导作用。此外，随着大气强迫的增加，SMB和排冰之间的相互作用限制了出口冰川动力学的重要性。与使用与IPCC AR4具有相同参数的PDD模型相比，区域气候模型的强迫产生的海平面贡献高出14-31％。

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