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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Geophysical Research, C. Oceans: JGR >Projected changes to Tasman Sea eddies in a future climate
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Projected changes to Tasman Sea eddies in a future climate

机译：未来气候中塔斯曼海涡流的预计变化

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The Tasman Sea is a hot spot of ocean warming, that is linked to the increased poleward influence of the East Australian Current (EAC) over recent decades. Specifically, the EAC produces mesoscale eddies which have significant impacts on the physical, chemical, and biological properties of the Tasman Sea. To effectively consider and explain potential eddy changes in the next 50 years, we use high-resolution dynamically downscaled climate change simulations to characterize the projected future marine climate and mesoscale eddies in the Tasman Sea through the 2060s. We assess changes in the marine climate and the eddy field using bulk statistics and by detecting and tracking individual eddies. We find that the eddy kinetic energy is projected to increase along southeast Australia. In addition, we find that eddies in the projected future climate are composed of a higher proportion of anticyclonic eddies in this region and that these eddies are longer lived and more stable. This amounts to nearly a doubling of eddy-related southward temperature transport in the upper 200 m of the Tasman Sea. These changes are concurrent with increases in baroclinic and barotropic instabilities focused around the EAC separation point. This poleward transport and increase in eddy activity would be expected to also increase the frequency of sudden warming events, including ocean temperature extremes, with potential impacts on marine fisheries, aquaculture, and biodiversity off Tasmania's east coast, through direct warming or competition/predation from invasive migrating species.
机译：塔斯曼海是​​海洋变暖的热点，这与近几十年来东澳大利亚洋流（EAC）越来越多的极地影响联系在一起。具体来说，EAC会产生中尺度涡流，这些涡流会对塔斯曼海的物理，化学和生物学特性产生重大影响。为了有效地考虑和解释未来50年内潜在的涡旋变化，我们使用高分辨率的动态缩减气候变化模拟来表征到2060年代塔斯曼海地区预计的未来海洋气候和中尺度涡旋。我们使用大量统计数据以及通过检测和跟踪单个涡流来评估海洋气候和涡流场的变化。我们发现，涡流动能预计将在澳大利亚东南部增加。另外，我们发现，在该未来气候中，涡流在该区域中由较高比例的反气旋涡流组成，并且这些涡流寿命更长且更稳定。这相当于塔斯曼海上部200 m内与涡流有关的向南温度传输几乎翻了一番。这些变化与围绕EAC分离点的斜压和正压不稳定性的增加同时发生。这种极向的运输和涡流活动的增加还将增加突然变暖事件的频率，包括极端海洋温度，通过直接变暖或来自澳大利亚的竞争/掠夺，可能对塔斯马尼亚东海岸外的海洋渔业，水产养殖和生物多样性产生潜在影响。入侵性迁移物种。

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