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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Geophysical Research, C. Oceans: JGR >Wind extremes in the North Sea Basin under climate change: An ensemble study of 12 CMIP5 GCMs
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Wind extremes in the North Sea Basin under climate change: An ensemble study of 12 CMIP5 GCMs

机译：气候变化下北海盆地的极端风：对12个CMIP5 GCM的整体研究

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摘要

Coastal safety may be influenced by climate change, as changes in extreme surge levels and wave extremes may increase the vulnerability of dunes and other coastal defenses. In the North Sea, an area already prone to severe flooding, these high surge levels and waves are generated by low atmospheric pressure and severe wind speeds during storm events. As a result of the geometry of the North Sea, not only the maximum wind speed is relevant, but also wind direction. Climate change could change maximum wind conditions, with potentially negative effects for coastal safety. Here, we use an ensemble of 12 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) General Circulation Models (GCMs) and diagnose the effect of two climate scenarios (rcp4.5 and rcp8.5) on annual maximum wind speed, wind speeds with lower return frequencies, and the direction of these annual maximum wind speeds. The 12 selected CMIP5 models do not project changes in annual maximum wind speed and in wind speeds with lower return frequencies; however, we do find an indication that the annual extreme wind events are coming more often from western directions. Our results are in line with the studies based on CMIP3 models and do not confirm the statement based on some reanalysis studies that there is a climate-change-related upward trend in storminess in the North Sea area. Key Points Annual maximum wind speed is not projected to change in 12 analyzed GCMsExtreme wind events tend to come more often from western directionsDifferences between the models are larger than these between scenarios
机译：沿海安全可能会受到气候变化的影响，因为极端浪涌水平和极端海浪的变化可能会增加沙丘和其他沿海防御设施的脆弱性。在北海已经很容易发生严重洪灾的地区，这些高浪涌水平和海浪是由于暴风雨期间的低气压和强风速产生的。由于北海的几何形状，不仅最大风速是重要的，而且风向也是重要的。气候变化可能会改变最大风向，对沿海安全可能产生负面影响。在这里，我们使用12个耦合模型比对项目第5阶段（CMIP5）总体循环模型（GCM）的集合，并诊断了两种气候情景（rcp4.5和rcp8.5）对年度最大风速，较低风速的影响返回频率，以及这些年度最大风速的方向。所选的12种CMIP5模型不会预测年度最大风速和返回频率较低的风速的变化;但是，我们确实发现，每年的极端风事件更多地来自西方。我们的结果与基于CMIP3模型的研究一致，并且没有基于一些再分析研究证实北海地区暴风雨存在与气候变化相关的上升趋势的说法。要点预计在12个被分析的GCM中年度最大风速不会发生变化极端风事件往往更多地来自西方方向模型之间的差异大于情景之间的差异

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