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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Geophysical Research, D. Atmospheres: JGR >Influence of assimilating rainfall derived from WSR-88D radar on the rainstorm forecasts over the southwestern United States
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Influence of assimilating rainfall derived from WSR-88D radar on the rainstorm forecasts over the southwestern United States

机译：来自WSR-88D雷达的同化降雨对美国西南部暴雨预报的影响

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摘要

In this study, the impact of rainfall assimilation on the forecasts of convective rainfall over the mountainous areas in the southwestern United States is investigated. The rainfall is derived from the U.S. Weather Surveillance Radar–1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) radar network, and the fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) Four-Dimensional Variational (4DVAR) system is employed in the study. We evaluate the rainfall assimilation skill through two rainstorm events (5–6 August and 11–12 September 2002) that occurred over the southwestern United States in 2002. A series of experiments for the two cases is conducted. The results show that the minimization process in the 4DVAR is sensitive to the length of assimilation window and error variance in the observation data. Assimilation of rainfall can produce a better short-range precipitation forecast. However, the time range of improved forecasts is limited to about 15 hours with the model resolution of 20 km. It is indicated that rainfall assimilation produces more realistic moisture divergence and temperature fields in the initial conditions for the two cases. Therefore the forecast of rainstorms is closer to observations in both quantity and pattern.
机译：在这项研究中，研究了降雨同化对美国西南山区对流降雨预报的影响。降雨来自美国天气监视雷达– 1988多普勒（WSR-88D）雷达网络，并且在研究中采用了第五代中尺度模型（MM5）二维变分（4DVAR）系统。我们通过2002年在美国西南部发生的两次暴雨事件（2002年8月5日至6日和2002年9月11日至12日）来评估降雨吸收能力。针对这两种情况进行了一系列实验。结果表明，4DVAR中的最小化过程对同化窗口的长度和观测数据中的误差方差敏感。降雨的同化可以产生更好的短期降水预报。但是，模型分辨率为20 km，改进的预测的时间范围限制为大约15小时。结果表明，在两种情况下，降雨的同化作用在初始条件下会产生更逼真的水分散度和温度场。因此，暴雨的预报在数量和模式上都更接近于观测。

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