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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Geophysical Research, D. Atmospheres: JGR >Changes in synoptic weather patterns and Greenland precipitationin the 20th and 21st centuries: 1. Evaluation of late 20th century simulations from IPCC models
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Changes in synoptic weather patterns and Greenland precipitationin the 20th and 21st centuries: 1. Evaluation of late 20th century simulations from IPCC models

机译：20世纪和21世纪天气天气模式和格陵兰降水的变化：1.利用IPCC模型评估20世纪后期的模拟

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Using the self-organizing map (SOM) technique, the sea level pressure synopticclimatology and precipitation of 15 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change FourthAssessment Report (IPCC AR4) models are compared to that of the ERA-40 reanalysisfor the North Atlantic region for the period 1961 to 1999. Three of the models, theCCCMA-CGCM3.1(T63), the MIROC3.2(hires), and the MPI-ECHAM5, best reproducethe ERA-40 synoptic climatology and are chosen for further analysis of precipitation overGreenland. The MIROC3.2(hires) is the best single performing model, in that it bestmatches ERA-40. Although the three-model ensemble simulates the same mean annualprecipitation over Greenland as ERA-40, the ensemble simulates the mean annualprecipitation differently than ERA-40. A dry bias in the CCCMA-CGCM3.1(T63) and awet bias from the MPI-ECHAM5 cancel in the ensemble average. The mean annualprecipitation difference between the model ensemble, as well as each individual model,and ERA-40 is then attributed to differences in intrapattern variability and patternfrequency components in the models that make up the ensemble. Pattern frequencydifferences between the model and ERA-40 indicate a difference in the occurrence ofsynoptic weather patterns, while intrapattern variability differences denote differences inthe amount of precipitation produced when a given synoptic weather pattern occurs.Intrapattern variability differences between the models and ERA-40 are predominantlyresponsible for Greenland precipitation differences, but pattern frequency (circulation)differences in the models also play a small role. Part 2 of this paper uses this three-modelensemble to analyze and attribute predicted increases in precipitation over the Greenlandice sheet for the 21st century.
机译：使用自组织图（SOM）技术，将15个政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告（IPCC AR4）模型的海平面气压天气气候和降水与1961年北大西洋地区的ERA-40重新分析的模型进行了比较。到1999年。CCCMA-CGCM3.1（T63），MIROC3.2（hires）和MPI-ECHAM5这三个模型能最好地再现ERA-40的天气气候，并被选择用于进一步分析格陵兰的降水。 MIROC3.2（hires）是最佳的单一性能型号，因为它与ERA-40最匹配。尽管三模型集合模拟的格陵兰岛平均年降水量与ERA-40相同，但集合模拟的平均年降水量与ERA-40不同。 CCCMA-CGCM3.1（T63）中的干偏差和MPI-ECHAM5中的湿偏差在整体平均值中抵消。然后，模型集合以及每个单独模型与ERA-40之间的平均年降水量差异归因于构成集合的模型中的图案内变异性和图案频率分量的差异。该模型与ERA-40之间的模式频率差异表示天气天气模式的发生差异，而模式内变异性差异表示在给定天气模式下发生降水时产生的降水量的差异。对于格陵兰岛降水差异，但模式中的模式频率（环流）差异也起着很小的作用。本文的第2部分使用这三个模型来分析和归因于21世纪格陵兰岛片层上预计的降水增加。

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