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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences >Comparison of stratospheric air parcel trajectories based on different meteorological analyses
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Comparison of stratospheric air parcel trajectories based on different meteorological analyses

机译：基于不同气象学分析的平流层空气包裹轨迹的比较

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Calculated trajectories have been compared with the 1995 Polar Vortex Balloon Experiment (POVORBEX) and 1997 and 1999 Montgolfier Infra-Red (MIR) long-duration balloon flights in the Arctic stratospheric vortex. The POVORBEX flight lasted 6 days, whereas the MTR flights lasted 13, 22, 7, and 17 days. The trajectories have been run at the pressure of the balloon (10 - 120 hPa), whereby the dominant contribution of the horizontal trajectory errors can be assessed. To obtain statistically significant results, new trajectories were started every 2 hours along the balloon flight track. Trajectories run at a temporal resolution of the meteorological fields of 24 hours sometimes give substantially larger errors than trajectories run at 12 hours or higher resolution owing to rapid nonlinear temporal developments. In 1995 the European Centre far Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) trajectories generally have substantially larger errors than the U.K. Meteorological Office (UKMO) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) trajectories, when 24 hourly analyses are used. In 1997 and 1999, when ECMWF had introduced a variational data assimilation, their trajectory errors inside the vortex have apparently reduced considerably and are generally substantially smaller than UKMO and NCEP errors. [References: 31]
机译：已将计算的轨迹与1995年极地涡流气球实验（POVORBEX）以及1997年和1999年Montgolfier红外（MIR）长期平流层在北极平流层涡旋中进行了比较。 POVORBEX航班持续6天，而MTR航班持续13、22、7和17天。轨迹是在气球的压力下（10-120 hPa）运行的，从而可以评估水平轨迹误差的主要贡献。为了获得具有统计意义的结果，沿着气球飞行轨道每2小时开始一条新的轨迹。由于快速的非线性时间发展，以24小时气象场的时间分辨率运行的轨迹有时会比以12小时或更高分辨率的轨迹运行的误差大得多。 1995年，欧洲中心远中天气预报（ECMWF）轨迹通常比使用24小时分析的英国气象局（UKMO）和国家环境预测中心（NCEP）轨迹具有更大的误差。在1997年和1999年，当ECMWF引入变分数据同化时，它们在涡旋内的轨迹误差明显减小，并且通常大大小于UKMO和NCEP误差。 [参考：31]

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