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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences >Northern Hemisphere winter climate response to greenhouse gas, ozone, solar, and volcanic forcing
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Northern Hemisphere winter climate response to greenhouse gas, ozone, solar, and volcanic forcing

机译：北半球冬季气候对温室气体，臭氧，太阳能和火山强迫的响应

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摘要

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate-middle atmosphere model has been used to study the impacts of increasing greenhouse gases, polar ozone depletion, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycle variability. We focus on the projection of the induced responses onto Northern Hemisphere winter surface climate. Changes in the model's surface climate take place largely through enhancement of existing variability patterns, with greenhouse gases, polar ozone depletion, and volcanic eruptions primarily affecting the Arctic Oscillation (AO) pattern. Perturbations descend from the stratosphere to the surface in the model by altering the propagation of planetary waves coming up from the surface, in accord with observational evidence. Models lacking realistic stratospheric dynamics fail to capture these wave flux changes. The results support the conclusion that the stratosphere plays a crucial role in recent AO trends. We show that in our climate model, while ozone depletion has a significant effect, greenhouse gas forcing is the only one capable of causing the large, sustained increase in the AO observed over recent decades. This suggests that the AO trend, and a concurrent strengthening of the stratospheric vortex over the Arctic, are very likely anthropogenic in origin. [References: 67]
机译：戈达德太空研究所（GISS）的气候中层大气模型已用于研究温室气体增加，极性臭氧消耗，火山喷发和太阳周期变化的影响。我们专注于对北半球冬季表面气候的诱发响应的投影。该模型的表面气候变化主要是通过增强现有的变化模式而发生的，其中温室气体，极性臭氧消耗和火山喷发主要影响北极涛动（AO）模式。根据观测证据，通过改变从地表上升的行星波的传播，摄动从平流层降到模型中的地表。缺乏逼真的平流层动力学的模型无法捕获这些波通量变化。结果支持了平流层在最近的AO趋势中起关键作用的结论。我们表明，在我们的气候模型中，尽管臭氧消耗具有显着影响，但温室气体强迫是唯一能够导致近几十年来观测到的AO持续大幅度增加的因素。这表明AO趋势以及北极上空平流层涡的同时加强很可能是人为起源。 [参考：67]

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