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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences >The failure of earthquake failure models
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The failure of earthquake failure models

机译：地震失效模型的失效

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In this study I show that simple heuristic models and numerical calculations suggest that an entire class of commonly invoked models of earthquake failure processes cannot explain triggering of seismicity by transient or "dynamic" stress changes, such as stress changes associated with passing seismic waves. The models of this class have the common feature that the physical property characterizing failure increases at an accelerating, rate when a fault is loaded (stressed) at a constant rate. Examples include models that invoke rate state friction or subcritical crack growth, in which the properties characterizing failure are slip or crack length, respectively. Failure occurs when the rate at which these grow accelerates to values exceeding some critical threshold. These accelerating failure models do not predict the finite durations of dynamically triggered earthquake sequences (e.g., at aftershock or remote distances). Some of the failure models belonging to this class have been used to explain static stress triggering of aftershocks. This may imply that the physical processes underlying dynamic triggering differs or that currently applied models of static triggering require modification. If the former is the case, we might appeal to physical mechanisms relying on oscillatory deformations such as compaction of saturated fault gouge leading to pore pressure increase, or cyclic fatigue. However, if dynamic and static triggering mechanisms differ, one still needs to ask why static triggering models that neglect these dynamic mechanisms appear to explain many observations. If the static and dynamic triggering mechanisms are the same, perhaps assumptions about accelerating failure and/or that triggering advances the failure times of a population of inevitable earthquakes are incorrect. [References: 29]
机译：在这项研究中，我表明，简单的启发式模型和数值计算表明，一整类通常调用的地震破坏过程模型无法解释瞬态或“动态”应力变化（例如与通过的地震波有关的应力变化）对地震活动的触发。此类模型的共同特征是，当故障以恒定速率加载（受力）时，表征故障的物理特性将以加速速率增加。示例包括调用速率状态摩擦或亚临界裂纹扩展的模型，其中表征失效的属性分别是滑动或裂纹长度。当这些速度增长到超过某个临界阈值的速度时，就会发生故障。这些加速破坏模型无法预测动态触发的地震序列的有限持续时间（例如，在余震或遥远距离处）。属于此类的某些故障模型已用于解释余震的静态应力触发。这可能意味着动态触发的基础物理过程有所不同，或者当前应用的静态触发模型需要修改。如果是前一种情况，我们可能会诉诸于依靠振荡变形的物理机制，例如饱和断层泥的压实导致孔隙压力增加或周期性疲劳。但是，如果动态和静态触发机制不同，那么仍然需要问为什么忽略了这些动态机制的静态触发模型似乎可以解释许多观察结果。如果静态和动态触发机制相同，则关于加速失败和/或触发提前的假设可能是不可避免的地震群的失败时间的错误假设。 [参考：29]

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