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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences >Monte Carlo uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the CACM chemical mechanism - art. no. 4443
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Monte Carlo uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the CACM chemical mechanism - art. no. 4443

机译：CACM化学机理的蒙特卡洛不确定性和敏感性分析-艺术。没有。 4443

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1] This paper presents a global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the Caltech Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism (CACM). Emphasis is placed on the characterization of uncertainties for product concentrations that constitute secondary organic aerosol (SOA) in CACM. The sensitivity analysis of the chemical mechanism is performed using Monte Carlo techniques combined with Latin hypercube sampling. Uncertainties in rate parameters are propagated through box model simulations with CACM for three different summer cases. Cases studied cover a range of initial concentrations of reactive organic gases and nitrogen oxides that represent episodes of high ozone levels in polluted urban areas. In addition to estimated uncertainties of gas-phase SOA precursor concentrations, similar calculations are performed for O-3, HCHO, H2O2, and peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN). Results indicate that SOA precursor concentrations predicted using nominal CACM rate parameters are similar to estimates from the Monte Carlo simulations. SOA gas-phase precursors in CACM present relative errors that range from 30% at a VOC: NOx ratio of 8: 1 to 39% when the ratio changes to 32: 1. [References: 27
机译：1]本文介绍了加州理工学院大气化学机制（CACM）的全球不确定性和敏感性分析。重点放在表征CACM中构成次级有机气溶胶（SOA）的产品浓度的不确定性表征上。化学机理的敏感性分析是使用蒙特卡洛技术结合拉丁超立方体采样技术进行的。速率参数的不确定性通过CACM的箱形模型模拟针对三种不同的夏季情况传播。研究的案例涵盖了反应性有机气体和氮氧化物的初始浓度范围，这些浓度代表了污染城市地区中高臭氧水平的发作。除了估计气相SOA前体浓度的不确定性外，还对O-3，HCHO，H2O2和过氧乙酰硝酸盐（PAN）进行了类似的计算。结果表明，使用名义CACM速率参数预测的SOA前体浓度类似于蒙特卡洛模拟的估计值。 CACM中SOA气相前驱物的相对误差在VOC：NOx比率为8：1时变为30％，而当比率变为32：1时为39％。[参考文献：27

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