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Statistical estimation of locations of lightning events

机译:闪电事件位置的统计估计

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摘要

In this paper, a statistical approach to the retrieval of lightning locations is proposed for the first time. This novel approach views the errors of the time measurements as random variables rather than unknown numbers. The unknown location (x, y, z) as well as the standard deviation #sigma# of the errors are treated as unknown parameters of a statistical model and are estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) technique. On the basis of Monte Carlo simulations these statistical estimators are compared with the least squares estimators (LSE), as well as the solutions of the system of linear equations proposed by Koshak and Solakiewicz [1996]. Although the method is general, the Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) system currently used at the Kennedy Space Center is chosen as a model for simulations. Simulations show that the MLE always gives better precision than the LSE technique. Also, it is demonstrated that if the time measurements are fairly accurate and a thunderstorm takes place in the neighborhood of the measuring sites (the distance is less than 80 km), the MLE significantly improves the accuracy of the solutions of the system of linear equations.
机译:在本文中,首次提出了一种统计方法来检索闪电位置。这种新颖的方法将时间测量的误差视为随机变量而不是未知数。未知位置(x,y,z)以及错误的标准偏差#sigma#被视为统计模型的未知参数,并使用最大似然估计(MLE)技术进行估计。在蒙特卡罗模拟的基础上,将这些统计估计量与最小二乘估计量(LSE)以及Koshak和Solakiewicz [1996]提出的线性方程组的解进行比较。尽管该方法很通用,但仍选择肯尼迪航天中心当前使用的雷电探测与测距(LDAR)系统作为模拟模型。仿真表明,MLE总是比LSE技术具有更高的精度。此外,还证明了,如果时间测量相当准确,并且在测量地点附近发生雷暴雨(距离小于80 km),则MLE会显着提高线性方程组解的准确性。 。

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