Analysis of the behavior of a rainfall-runoff model using three global sensitivity analysis methods evaluated at different temporal scales

Massmann C.; Holzmann H.

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Analysis of the behavior of a rainfall-runoff model using three global sensitivity analysis methods evaluated at different temporal scales

机译：使用三种全球敏感性分析方法在不同时间尺度上评估降雨径流模型的行为

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The effect of 11 parameters on the discharge of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model was analyzed for a small Austrian catchment. The sensitivities were computed using three methods: Sobol's indices, the mutual entropy and regional sensitivity analysis (RSA). The calculations were carried out for different temporal scales of evaluation ranging from daily to a multiannual period. A comparison of the methods shows that the mutual entropy and the RSA methods give more robust results than Sobol's method, which shows a higher variability in the sensitivities when they are calculated using different data sets. While all sensitivity methods are suitable for identifying the most sensitive parameters of a model, there are increasing differences in the results when the parameters become less important and also when shorter temporal scales are considered. A correlation analysis further indicated that the periods in which the parameter sensitivity rankings did not agree between the different methods are characterized by a higher impact of the parameters interactions on the modeled discharge. An analysis of the parameter sensitivity across the scales showed that the number of important parameter decreases when longer evaluation periods are considered. For instance, it was observed that all parameters were important at least during 1. day a daily scale, while at a yearly scale only the parameters characterizing the soil storage and the recession constants for interflow and percolation had high sensitivities. With respect to the impact of the interactions between parameters on the model results, it was observed that the largest effect is related to the parameters describing the size of the soil storage, the interflow and the percolation flow recession constants. Further, it was observed that there is a positive correlation between the importance of the interactions and the measured discharge. While the study focuses on quantitative sensitivity measures, it is also highlighted that graphical RSA analyses provide additional information regarding the parameter ranges associated with different discharge levels. This information can be used for increasing the understanding of the mechanisms by which the parameters affect the model results.

机译：分析了奥地利一个小流域的11个参数对概念性降雨径流模型流量的影响。使用三种方法计算灵敏度：Sobol指数，互熵和区域灵敏度分析（RSA）。计算是针对不同的时间评估尺度进行的，评估范围从每天到多年期。方法的比较表明，互熵和RSA方法比Sobol方法具有更可靠的结果，当使用不同数据集计算它们时，灵敏度表现出更高的敏感性。尽管所有灵敏度方法都适合于识别模型中最敏感的参数，但是当参数变得不那么重要以及考虑到较短的时间尺度时，结果的差异会越来越大。相关分析还表明，在不同方法之间参数灵敏度排名不一致的时期，其特征在于参数交互作用对建模放电的影响更大。对各个尺度的参数敏感性进行的分析表明，考虑更长的评估周期，重要参数的数量会减少。例如，据观察，所有参数至少在每天1.天的规模内都很重要，而在每年的规模上，只有表征土壤储量的参数以及内流和渗滤的衰退常数才具有很高的敏感性。关于参数之间的相互作用对模型结果的影响，观察到最大的影响与描述土壤储藏规模，内流和渗流衰退系数的参数有关。此外，观察到相互作用的重要性与测得的放电之间存在正相关。尽管研究集中在定量灵敏度测量上，但也要强调的是，图形化RSA分析提供了有关与不同排放水平相关的参数范围的其他信息。此信息可用于增加对参数影响模型结果的机制的理解。

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《Journal of Hydrology》 |2012年第null期|共14页
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Massmann C.; Holzmann H.;
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中图分类水文科学（水界物理学）;
关键词
Mutual entropy; Parameter interactions; Parameter ranking; Regional sensitivity analysis; Sobol' sensitivity indices;

机译：相互熵参数相互作用参数排序区域敏感性分析Sobol敏感性指标;

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1. Analysis of the behavior of a rainfall-runoff model using three global sensitivity analysis methods evaluated at different temporal scales [J] . Massmann C., Holzmann H. Journal of Hydrology . 2012,第Null期

机译：使用三种全球敏感性分析方法在不同时间尺度上评估降雨径流模型的行为
2. Towards robust methods to couple lumped rainfall-runoff models and hydraulic models: A sensitivity analysis on the Illinois River [J] . Lerat J., Perrin C., Andréassian V., Journal of Hydrology . 2012,第Null期

机译：寻求将集总降雨径流模型与水力模型耦合的鲁棒方法：伊利诺伊河的敏感性分析
3. Comparison of global sensitivity analysis methods - Application to fuel behavior modeling [J] . Ikonen Timo Nuclear Engineering and Design . 2016,第FEBa期

机译：全局灵敏度分析方法的比较-在燃料行为建模中的应用
4. The Use of Global Sensitivity Methods for the Analysis, Evaluation and Improvement of Complex Modelling Systems [C] . Alison S. Tomlin, Tilo Ziehn Workshop on coping with complexity: Model reduction and data analysis . 2011

机译：使用全局敏感性方法进行分析，评估和改进复杂建模系统
5. Evaluating global sensitivity analysis methods for hydrologic modeling over the columbia river basin. [D] . Hameed, Maysoun Ayad. 2015

机译：评估哥伦比亚河流域水文建模的整体敏感性分析方法。
6. Fraction of nitrous oxide production in nitrification and its effect on total soil emission: A meta-analysis and global-scale sensitivity analysis using a process-based model [O] . Motoko Inatomi, Tomohiro Hajima, Akihiko Ito 2012

机译：硝化过程中产生一氧化二氮的比例及其对土壤总排放的影响：基于过程模型的荟萃分析和全球敏感性分析
7. Decision-making is the process of analyzing information about a problem situation and comparing it to a specific conclusion in order to solve a specific problematic (Yıkılmaz, 2001; Miller and Byrnes, 2001). Decision-making styles are a mechanism that is influenced by the internal and external conditions that determine the direction of the decisions of the individual, the content of the decision-making process, and the outcome of the decision-making process (Payne, Bettman and Johson, 1993; Bavol’ár and Orosová, 2015). ACT is a contemporary member of the Cognitive Behavioral Therapy family. ACT (Acceptance and commitment therapy) has both similar and different directions with Behavioral Therapies and Cognitive Therapies (Herbet and Forman, 2011; Hayes, 2004). KKT responds to classical behavioral treatments using both existential and cognitive approaches in the analysis of behavior. KKT is a science wing that tries to solve human problems with a wider perspective aimed at solving problematic human behaviors (Plumb, Stewart, Dahl and Lundgren, 2009). It is seen that there is very little research about the new approach of ACT approach when the aiming country of our country is screened and it is thought that our country will contribute to the field of psychological counseling with the work done. In the scope of the research, experimental and control groups and preliminary test, post-test and follow-up measurements of 2x3 experimental design were used. The study's study group consists of a total of 24 (12 experimental and 12 control groups) university students studying in different departments and levels, continuing their education in the academic year of 2015-2016 in Ağrı province and İbrahim Chechen University in 2015-2016 academic year. The average age of participants in the experiment and control group is 20. There were 12 participants in the experimental group, 7 female and 5 male, and 12 participants, 7 female and 5 male in the control group. Personal Information Form and Decision Making Style Scale prepared by the researcher were used in the research. In order to decide on the tests to be used in the course of analyzing the data, the scores of the participant's Decision Styles Scale pre-test, which are placed primarily in the experimental and control groups, it was analyzed whether the basic expectations of parametric tests were answered. As a result of the analysis made, the scores, skewness and kurtosis coefficients obtained from the Decision Making Styles Scale were given to the experimental and control groups. It was determined that the distribution was normal in the result of Shapiro-Wilk test, in which the skewness and kurtosis coefficients of each sub-scale were ranked between -1 and +1. Participants in the experimental and control groups; homogeneity test results for decision-style pre-test measurements indicate that the data are homogeneous. According to the results of the Mauchly Globalness Test, it has been determined that working supports the hypothesis. It was determined that there was no significant difference between the pre-test scores obtained from dependent decision-making style of experiment and control groups, but the test group showed lower mean scores at the significant level within the scores of post-test and follow-up tests. Therefore, it can be said that the ACT-oriented psychoeducation program applied to the experimental group reduces the dependent decision-making style scores from the decision style sub-dimensions and the psychoeducation program has a lasting effect. It was determined that there was no significant difference between pre-test, post-test and follow-up scores obtained from the Spontaneous-Instant Decision Style of experiment and control groups. Thus, it can be said that this situation does not cause a significant difference in the Spontaneous-Decision-Making Style scores from the decision style sub-dimensions of the ACT-oriented psychoeducation program applied to the experimental group. The ACT -oriented psychoeducation program had a decline in the intuitive decision-making styles of the individuals, but this decrease did not create significant differences. Thus, it can be said that this situation does not make a meaningful difference in the intuitive decision style scores from the decision style sub-dimensions of the KKT oriented psychoeducation program applied to the experimental group. The pre-test scores obtained from the rational decision-making style of the experimental and control groups showed that there was a difference between the post-test and the follow-up scores, but this difference was not significant. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that the test group had higher levels of rational decision style than the pre - test scores in the post test and follow - up scores, whereas the post test and follow - up test scores in the control group rational decision style showed a decrease compared to the pre - test scores. the pre - test scores. Decision-making Styles Scale Avoidant Decision Making As a result of the analysis of the mean scores of the subscale scores of pre-test, post-test and follow-up measures, the group effect was found to be insignificant. It was determined that the experimental and control groups differed significantly from the pre-test scores obtained from the avoidant decision-making style but did not show any significant change within the scores of the post-test and follow-up tests. [O] . mustafa ercengiz, ali haydar şar 2018

机译：决策是分析有关问题情况的信息并将其与特定结论进行比较的过程，以解决特定的问题（Yıkılmaz，2001; Miller和Byrnes，2001）。决策风格是一种机制，受到内部和外部条件的影响，确定个人决定的方向，决策过程的内容以及决策过程的结果（PAYNE，BETTMAN和BEDNE） Johson，1993;Bavol'ár和奥萨洛瓦，2015）。法案是认知行为治疗家庭的当代成员。行为（验收和承诺治疗）具有与行为疗法和认知疗法的类似和不同方向（Herbet和Forman，2011; Hayes，2004）。 KKT在分析行为中使用存在性和认知方法来响应古典行为治疗方法。 KKT是一个科学翼，试图解决人类问题，旨在解决有问题的人类行为（铅垂，斯图尔特，Dahl和Lundgren，2009）。有人认为，当我们国家的瞄准国家进行筛选时，有关行动方法的新方法几乎没有研究，并且认为我们的国家将为完成工作做出贡献的心理咨询领域。在研究的范围内，使用实验和对照组和初步测试，使用后测试和后续测量的2x3实验设计。该研究的研究小组包括共24名（12个实验和12个对照组）大学学生在不同的部门和水平上学习，在2015-2016学术上继续进行2015-2016的学术年度2015-2016学年年。实验和对照组参与者的平均年龄是20.实验组中有12名参与者，7名女性和5名男性，12名参与者，7名女性和5名男性。研究人员准备的个人信息表格和决策制定风格规模在研究中使用。为了决定在分析数据的过程中使用的测试，参与者的决策风格刻度预测的分数主要在实验和对照组中进行，分析了参数的基本期望吗？测试得到了回答。由于对实验和对照组给出了从决策曲调标度获得的分数，偏移和峰度分子系数。确定该分布是正常的在成熟的-WILK试验结果中，其中每亚级的偏差和刚度系数在-1到+1之间排名。实验和对照组的参与者;决策式预测测量的同质性测试结果表明数据是均匀的。根据毛毛环保试验的结果，已确定工作支持假设。据确定，从依赖决策风格的实验和对照组获得的预测分数之间没有显着差异，但测试组在测试后的分数内显示出较低的平均分数和后续的分数 - 测试。因此，可以说，应用于实验组的面向活动的心理教育程序减少了决策风格子维度的依赖决策风格分数，并且心理教育程序具有持久的效果。据确定，从实验和对照组自发决策风格获得的预测试，测试后和后续评分之间没有显着差异。因此，可以说这种情况不会导致从应用于实验组的活动导向的心理教育程序的决策风格分数的自发决策风格分数显着差异。行为的心理教育计划在个人直观的决策风格下降，但这种减少并没有产生显着的差异。因此，可以说，这种情况不会在从应用于实验组的KKT导向的心理教育程序的决策风格分数中产生有意义的决策风格分数。从实验和对照组的理性决策风格获得的预测分数显示后检验后和随访评分之间存在差异，但这种差异并不重要。由于分析，确定测试组的理性决策风格较高，而不是后测试和后续分数的预测分数，而对照组合理决策风格的后测试和后续测试分数显示出与预测试分数相比的减少。预测分数。决策款式扩展避免决策由于分析了预测试，测试后和后续措施的班次评分的平均分数，发现群体效应是微不足道的。确定实验和对照组从避免决策风格获得的预测评分中显着不同，但在测试后和后续测试的分数内没有显示出任何重大变化。
8. Deterministic Methods for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis in Large-Scale Computer Models [R] . Worley, B. A. , Oblow, E. M. , Pin, F. G. , 1987

机译：大规模计算机模型灵敏度和不确定性分析的确定性方法

Analysis of the behavior of a rainfall-runoff model using three global sensitivity analysis methods evaluated at different temporal scales

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